Aurora Cannabis (ACB) closed at $6.98 on Sept 11, meeting 2 previous support Lows.
Fibonacci ratios and Elliot Waves on this chart fit quite nicely.
Key points for a BULLish trend over the next 6 months:
Key Support met again. History tells us a breakout may be on the horizon.
Declining volume on the downward trade indicates a possibility for a breakout with high volume.
RSI provides a strong oversold indicator.
Consider the larger Elliot Wave Trend and see that we may be at the low of a Wave 2 on the larger cycle, indicating the best buying opportunity of all time, with low downside risk.
Key Points for Risk-Reward Trades over the shorter-term:
Note the MACD cross-over, but also the unreliable nature of this indicator, especially considering prior history of "flip-flopping".
Lots of opportunity to trade the up and down moves to $150 over the short term if there is a bull breakout.
First target of $33.50 is based on the .786 retracement, and coincides with the impulse peak of wave 3. This will require a strong breakout with volume and likely be accompanied by high volatility.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional and I chart for my own education and learning. Please feel free to share your ideas and any resources you might recommend! Thank you! :)
Kommentera
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BEAR CASE since we should always consider both sides:
Should we see a breakdown below the $5.00 mark we'd set a stop loss here. However, considering the fundamentals and profitability of the company, one would be better to hold some of the shares long term, pending the results of the upcoming U.S. Election and the consequence this would have on legalizing federally in the next 2 years.
Kommentera
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Update: Considering recent market performance we've taken our stop-loss in ACB.
I would like to personally thank those that came by and commented. Specifically noting my incorrect ABCDE pattern, and highlighting the weak fundamental performance in ACB.
Alas, as any trader knows, one is better to protect your capital and look for better setups than to try catching a falling knife.
Meanwhile, some traders who were not in ACB already might find that this is the best buying opportunity in the stock's history. However capital might be better used elsewhere.
Our capital was moved in SPCE where it can do more for us in the short and longer term - you can check out the squeeze happening on my charted idea here:
Elliott Wave Theory doesn't quite work that way. I drew this up in a few minutes, to give you an idea.
whiskey4
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abcde is completely wrong thats not elliot wave
hinikaharpavat
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Excellent Annalysis!!! Go Ahead
Barkworth
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I've always cut my fingers, trying to catch falling knives.
Shadowfigure
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@Barkworth, thanks for stopping by! I appreciate your comment and don't hope to present myself as a raging ACB bull. Rather, considering the Risk-Reward setup, with an easy stop-loss to take around $4-$5, one could make an argument for both proactive and reactive trading setups.
My best recommendation to those with low risk-tolerance would be to wait for a breakout on the wedge with volume and set a firm stop-loss around $6.50 to avoid a fakeout bear trap.
Hope that helps! Willing to learn if you have some tips or feedback on my analysis so I can improve for the future. Thanks again! :)
Barkworth
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@AlyAbji, I'm sure it is going to bounce at some point, but its fundamentals are extremely weak, and there is no smart money buying. I don't think that will change with the coming 1.8B write off of goodwill. They have also announced pre-earnings call, that they will miss on revenue and EBITDA targets. This recent update was a warning that the company is not doing well, and there is more pain to come.
Like you write in your response, I think waiting for a break out is the smart play here. A bounce likely will stop short at $10-$10.60 and continue to test the lows. The next time it'll test $5.30, it'll could easily make a lower low.
Thanks for a nice response. I like your analysis, but ACB has to prove that it can survive first. The next challenge on a bounce will be imminent dilution to raise more cash. She is bleeding still...