Based off of the very long-term Neely-Elliott Wave count, Wave-F needs a few more months of sideways action before we start breaking up away from the green trendline. The time target is saying wave-F should end sometime around July, and we will begin a violent wave-G up. This G-wave will bring several cryptos to multi-trillion dollar market caps. At which point, we will see the 12 year Bitcoin bubble ending, and we could see a very long-term (10 year+) correction beginning after that point.
It's likely that we've already hit the lowest price, but there is a small chance we could go lower before July. Most likely price will slowly drift sideways and up until around July, at which point it will finally break away from the trendline and begin a violent advance similar to what we saw in 2013 and 2017. Most top cryptocurrencies should follow a similar pattern and see violent advances beginning in July.
For now I am remaining neutral/bullish until July, at which point I will take a more aggressive bullish position if my analysis continues to hold water.
The Three Day looks like we may need to get another wave that takes us to at least 2600 by April, but there's a good chance this will be the bottom and we'll make a higher low in July
Kommentera
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I was looking at this chart from over 3 years ago. I managed to call BTC bottom in 2019, as well as calling BTC going to 69k at the same time (red box). My timing was a little bit off but overall my price forecast was dead on.
You've been completely wrong before, what makes you think you are right this time?
Intuit
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@theowl, I never said I thought I was right or wrong, all I did was share my analysis. It's up to you to determine if you think it's correctly done or not. No analysis is going to be a winner 100% of the time. Even if it is done correctly there is still a chance it can be a loser. I'm sure it's done correctly because it's been reviewed by the creator of NEowave, but that doesn't mean I think it's going to be necessarily a winner, because I don't and can't know exactly what the future holds, nobody can. There's also more than one possibility here that I can see, and there are others that I can't see. There's several reasons why I think this may be the most probable, but I don't assume my analysis is going to win or lose, I just try to make sure it's done correctly and let the probabilities work themselves out.
It would take me a really long time to explain here all the reasons why I think this is correct from a wave analysis standpoint, but even with my analysis being done correctly there's always some probability that it can be a loser. So I see it as better to go with what's most probable and expect nothing as far as being right or wrong, and let the market decide if you were right or wrong. Risk management is very important in this regard because nobody wins all of the time.
Also, based on the long-term wave analysis, there is no other count that I can see at the moment that fits here other than this being wave-F. The highest probability target has wave-F ending in July, but it's possible it could take longer than that. This is based on channeling, time, price, structure, complexity, and fundamental considerations on multiple time frames. There's also several other indications we're nearing a long-term bottom such as long-term momentum and acceleration divergences.
Intuit
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@Intuit, Also I should add that I avoid expectations precisely because they lead to disappointment and stubbornness, and put your mind in a state that is not good for successful trading. Expectations lead to outcome dependence and prevent you from being present in the moment. The less present you are, the less you will notice when the market is signaling it is about to turn against you.