So today we have seen the same as a week ago, one big Bitcoin whale buying around 10.000 Bitcoins around 6300 again, almost the same as a week ago. Now i keep wondering, if that whale that bought everything up at that blue circle a week ago, does he still have them, did he unload at the highs? Did he just dump these and did another one buy them up? (don't think so). Or is it just wash trading to confuse us all.
If not, looking at these big sell candles at the lows, i can't stop wondering, if there isn't just someone buying up this weak market at the moment. When we broke the 6000 buy wall where a big number of btc was waiting to get sold into (think there we did see wash trading) but instead of big panic, the price just got bought up, back into the 6K's. Like someone was just waiting to catch the panic selling between 5999 and 5800. A week has passed already and one fake upwards break out after the other, this market is still very weak. Were they not finished accumulating or is the market just too weak and this whale is running out of funds as well. We can't know, one thing is sure, games are being played. Impossible to know if he did not unload already, maybe he is even giving a fake signal to the bulls. Can't say yet if we have an April low move here, the whales keep mixing it up and getting better in hiding their footprints.
On the right we see a clear bearish version, a standard bear flag telling us the market wants to make another big wave down again. This market is not even a bear market anymore, it has become a trap market :) Shorts on Bitfinex are around ATH, the same was going on in April, but it would be too easy IMO if they would play the same game again. The biggest difference this time i think, is Bitmex. Volume has increased even more the past 2 months and there were allot more shorts open on Bitmex than we have now. Based on that, we would have to drop much more, somewhere in the middle 5K levels. But that would invalidate the theory above.
So even if this bear flag would break, be aware for a big bear trap. This means a quick drop to 5900/5600 and a big volume jump up again back into the flag.
I thought after the 6400 broke we would probably brake the 6300 as well, but that big whale prevented that. Other exchanges were 50 to 80 points lower, but 1 person is possible to keep the market up, only in crypto people :). So my best guess is, another drop after this small bear flag finishes towards 6100. Depending on how the price will react there, we might get some answers. The moment we are waiting for is a drop, maybe a V shape low or maybe a big flag and a Bart move up, that could indicate the low. If we don't see a big bounce up, the bears will probably still be in control. I think the bullish view has the biggest chance of succeeding, but i always try to look at the moment it's self. Just too many variables at the moment. If i am able to catch the low through a certain pattern and i catch the low, then i am in good shape. But predicting what we will do the coming days, is too difficult. Based on the alts not making new lows, think we need to stay above the 6100, otherwise chances increase another round of panic in the market will occur. Whatever happens, lets hope we don't go sideways for another week.
Good luck
If not, looking at these big sell candles at the lows, i can't stop wondering, if there isn't just someone buying up this weak market at the moment. When we broke the 6000 buy wall where a big number of btc was waiting to get sold into (think there we did see wash trading) but instead of big panic, the price just got bought up, back into the 6K's. Like someone was just waiting to catch the panic selling between 5999 and 5800. A week has passed already and one fake upwards break out after the other, this market is still very weak. Were they not finished accumulating or is the market just too weak and this whale is running out of funds as well. We can't know, one thing is sure, games are being played. Impossible to know if he did not unload already, maybe he is even giving a fake signal to the bulls. Can't say yet if we have an April low move here, the whales keep mixing it up and getting better in hiding their footprints.
On the right we see a clear bearish version, a standard bear flag telling us the market wants to make another big wave down again. This market is not even a bear market anymore, it has become a trap market :) Shorts on Bitfinex are around ATH, the same was going on in April, but it would be too easy IMO if they would play the same game again. The biggest difference this time i think, is Bitmex. Volume has increased even more the past 2 months and there were allot more shorts open on Bitmex than we have now. Based on that, we would have to drop much more, somewhere in the middle 5K levels. But that would invalidate the theory above.
So even if this bear flag would break, be aware for a big bear trap. This means a quick drop to 5900/5600 and a big volume jump up again back into the flag.
I thought after the 6400 broke we would probably brake the 6300 as well, but that big whale prevented that. Other exchanges were 50 to 80 points lower, but 1 person is possible to keep the market up, only in crypto people :). So my best guess is, another drop after this small bear flag finishes towards 6100. Depending on how the price will react there, we might get some answers. The moment we are waiting for is a drop, maybe a V shape low or maybe a big flag and a Bart move up, that could indicate the low. If we don't see a big bounce up, the bears will probably still be in control. I think the bullish view has the biggest chance of succeeding, but i always try to look at the moment it's self. Just too many variables at the moment. If i am able to catch the low through a certain pattern and i catch the low, then i am in good shape. But predicting what we will do the coming days, is too difficult. Based on the alts not making new lows, think we need to stay above the 6100, otherwise chances increase another round of panic in the market will occur. Whatever happens, lets hope we don't go sideways for another week.
Good luck
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LOL :)
Bitmex maintenance started 4 minutes ago, at the exact second, the squeeze started. Maybe the ones who kept saying that Bitmex follows the exchanges because it's the future, not the other ways around, they will probably scratch the back of their heads now.
What a joke this market is actually. At least we have got some movement now
Bitmex maintenance started 4 minutes ago, at the exact second, the squeeze started. Maybe the ones who kept saying that Bitmex follows the exchanges because it's the future, not the other ways around, they will probably scratch the back of their heads now.
What a joke this market is actually. At least we have got some movement now
Kommentera:
This breakout has triggered the inverse H&S with a target around 7100/7300. Only thing that is worrying me a bit, is the shorts are not closing at all at Finex. But on the other hand, that could still be fuel though for the next wave up
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Bitmex opens 5mintues, jumps to 7150, exchanges around 6850, then we see Bitmex take control again, pushing prices down to 6700
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For the ones who are not aware, the website went online again at 04.00 CET, the first 5 minutes were cancel mode only and closing position. So after the green box trading started again. Just look how they control this market.
Before Bitmex opened they were stable around 6800
Before Bitmex opened they were stable around 6800
Kommentera:
Think we really need to bow down to the bears, how they have been able to pull this off, to push the price right back into the bear flag zone again. It was invalidated yesterday, but they got it in play again.
On the right we can see, so far it's nothing more than a standard pullback, however usually in crypto we don't see it pullback this much. This actually says, there is no FOMO in the market, or the bears are just TOO strong (too much selling volume). So it's just wait and see, in theory we should stay above 6600 but i think there is room up to 6500ish to remain short term bullish.
On the right we can see, so far it's nothing more than a standard pullback, however usually in crypto we don't see it pullback this much. This actually says, there is no FOMO in the market, or the bears are just TOO strong (too much selling volume). So it's just wait and see, in theory we should stay above 6600 but i think there is room up to 6500ish to remain short term bullish.
Kommentera:
What a movement again in Bitcoin. I have a few theories in my mind, while i was driving home. I will post them later tonight. At the moment, it's in a danger zone again. This 6200/6400 should hold, than it could still be a very big shakeout of the bulls. There is potential bullish wedge in the making, but it's an ugly one
Below 6200 the bears should be in favor (even more than they already are)
Below 6200 the bears should be in favor (even more than they already are)
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Maybe, just maybe we have a low set for now, looks like a small bullsih wedge. Depends on the bounce
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That went pretty fast, now if they are able to push it above 6450/6500, we could just have another reversal again. They just ping pong the shit out of Bitcoin and the retail trader just gets mixed up in it
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Starting to look like the Bart people are pushing it down again. Think if the 6330/20 breaks, probably drop again. Seen these moves too many times already
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Looks like their trying to make an inverse H&S here with a target around the 6550/6600. The fight is going on at the neckline, the only one holding it back is Bitmex. I can see at least one person distributing allot of volume between the 6390/6420. So this will be another test to see who the boss is. For all you tech guys out there, just watch what happens. This should be a move up, but we all know most moves are fake lately. So what i am trying to say here is, someone is loading up shorts big time on Bitmex now. When is he filled up, he will use one (probably 2 or 3) exchanges to push the price down as well. If your able to spot when and how he exactly does it, you can use that information the next time. If we don't drop but move, than i am probably thinking too much of the price action now and this bear will probably got a green dildo shoved up his ... :)
Kommentera:
Still no real direction has been chosen, few small attempts to break upwards, but still fits the picture of distribution since it got pushed back just as fast again.
I hope i am wrong, but i think it's safe to say, that if we break this green support zon (yesterdays low) that we will probably drop towards the 6300/6200 and i think maybe even lower. This is a hunch, not TA so i could easily be wrong. But lets just see what happens so we can use this information the next time to our own benefit. I never used to share this info, but things are getting to extreme levels now with these people, it's time we do something about it. So lets hope we just move up towards 6550/6600 as we should, there the market can choose if it's just a correction of the drop and continue down again or choose the other direction.
I hope i am wrong, but i think it's safe to say, that if we break this green support zon (yesterdays low) that we will probably drop towards the 6300/6200 and i think maybe even lower. This is a hunch, not TA so i could easily be wrong. But lets just see what happens so we can use this information the next time to our own benefit. I never used to share this info, but things are getting to extreme levels now with these people, it's time we do something about it. So lets hope we just move up towards 6550/6600 as we should, there the market can choose if it's just a correction of the drop and continue down again or choose the other direction.
Kommentera:
Update:
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Anyway, there is a big chance they are making an inverse H&S here with a target of 6700ish. That would the big resistance around 6600 would break to reach that. If the bulls manage to do that, i cant imagine it will stop at 6700. But we have had so many fake break outs already the past 2 weeks, so i would not just trade it blindly. Only thing i hope, is a break of this 6000/6600 as soon as possible.