Be great to get some comments - both bullish and bearish here;
What is the current sentiment for you?
What is the retail sentiment? too eager, or right time?
Here's a few things I am fearful of in terms of the downside potential;
This is potentially a monthly ABC move - C not measured, just a question kept open.
With this in mind, looking at the potential for the pullback level, swing high to low. This makes a lot of sense for sucker punching retail - on route to 50k
Nearing a Gann level weekly resistance.
Sloping volume giving divergence to price action.
The WEISS Volume not feeling overly Bullish
Market Oscillator for the total - less than the bar before; hitting it's quadratics high point
With the Total market Cap in over bought territory.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Assume this is a Bullish Move and none of the above is taken into account;
we have an extension 2 - 3 move here nearing its 2.618
So what are your thoughts and analysis for either long or short?
Let's get some comments!
Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
I am still bearish down to 15k-12k which would be the 5th -85% High-to-Low retracement in Bitcoin's history. I am still operating under the thesis that price is within the "Bull Trap" / "Return to Normal" phase of a bubble cycle. There is a greater reward potential on the short side if so.
@nkkollaw, thank you for your informative contribution to this discussion
Yoaklar
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Learned a good lesson on this move. Stick to your plan. I was looking for this move after the ATH and too much listening to bearish sentiment kept me out. The lesson, not everyone online is trading on the same timeline and I stayed out of a 150% move on Matic.
Overall I think we are going to see a repeat of 2018 style distribution and eventually gully out again.
Stairs downs 47k, 45k, 40k, 37k maybe 30k in about 4 weeks?
OxEconomist
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September will be red, stocks correcting from ath will bring btc down.
Darrensagay
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@kenshintani, hmmmm
BarnBuilder
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Smart money = Number of BTC addresses with >1,000 BTC Source: Glassnode
Glassnode data shows that BTC attracts smart money, and smart money has always been ahead of the curve. Since May, smart money has not accumulated new BTC addresses as if they expect a new ATH in the near future.
There are 2 precedents to consider for comparison. Then 2013 double top and the 2017 market top. In both of cases, the end of those bull market runs were marked by smart money going quiet. They neither accumulate nor distribute during these cooling off periods that measure 7-12 months. Their activity just freezes. Current cycle smart money started distributing in January 20 as expected, however, their activity has been flat for 3 months. Their activity is identical to the end of a bull market.
The 1st top of the 2013 double top showed smart money started distributing as expected, but quickly reversed to accumulation immediately after the 1st huge sell-off. Smart money accumulated all the way through the 70% drawdown as if it provided a golden opportunity. If we are to consider this to be a 2020 double top, smart money is not accumulating like the 2013 1st top. This is a major bearish divergence that I can not overlook. Smart money has remained dead flat with no new addresses >1k BTC generated since the initial sell off.
Summary: I'm very cautious. I can not get passed the fact that this Glassnode metric has never been wrong. It is right in line with what I'd define as smart money. It's hard to believe smart money is going to watch BTC go to a new ATH without refilling their bags. However, BTC has met every reasonable metric I use to trade long - so I continue to profit on the long side and will do so until those metrics start to break down.
One other Elliot Wave comment: When in doubt zoom out. I firmly believe the monthly shows we are in the B Wave of an ABC corrective leg within the bull trend. Combined with my analysis of smart money, the B Wave has been a hoot, but I dont intend to ride a C Wave. I cut my position sizes by 50% this morning. I'm very interested in what happens tomorrow morning.
Mayfair_Ventures
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@BarnBuilder, Good comments! - yeah it is hard, but these guys play much bigger timeframes, so think of the heartache for many who are now seeing "buy and hold" it's likely to push higher, get as many longs believing it's here and then the big move down. C monthly will be a cruel but enjoyable move here for sure. I would like to see it hit 66k and down as it would built a whole new liquidity situation. It's going to be messy either way.