The golden lines on the fibonacci would generally be considered the golden ratio and it has always shown great accuracy for a common reversal point during a bounce off a fall. If BTC can clear and hold the gold lines, it is then possibility to touch its high again and possibly break for ATH.
AS we can see with 2017 once the price rejected in this golden zone, it fell nearly 45%. This is a huge moment for BTC. This will tell very much about the alts specifically.
In the last bull markets, BTC topped and then most alts ran for around a month or two exploding to ATH. This is the period where much of the gains were produced for most alt coins. During this period BTC was downtrending but also doing much consolidation. Within that period most alts had mind blowing uptrends.
If BTC can manage to break and hold this golden ratio, the bull run may last longer if time generally repeats. This could then give a hint most alts have much more gains to come.
Please Comment and Share your thoughts!
Kommentera
⋅
BTC is following same path as 2017. Monitor closely.
Kommentera
⋅
FIb has played perfect. .702 is the bomb retracement level. -30% since i warned of this near perfect similarity.
Great analysis. I'm hoping BTC doesn't hold the golden lines and we get a good correction for a buy opportunity in the ALTS. If this happens do you expect we will see the ALTS dip as well. This has been trend lately, no disconnect yet. It would be great if you could chart the CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET EXCLUDE BTC, to get a feel for the ALTS direction. Thanks!
ianrdouglas
⋅
There's a significant difference in the run-up. You're right that to be doubly safe 59.6 needs to be cleared and held, but I think it will be, because I don't think we've seen the last wave up yet
@traderview2, No worries. Problems in your analysis: 1) You don't include the wick in setting your Fibonacci on the 2017 chart. Include the wick and you'll see the retracement rally reached the 0.702. Strong rejection (some rejection is expected, obviously) in an uptrend at that level does suggest a possible trend reversal. 2) The initial downside impulse was -42.3% in 2017 compared to -27.6% now. 3) The initial downside impulse in 2017 rendered a relief rally that reached the 0.618. It then backtested the 0.236 as support. Now, the relief rally almost reached the 0.702 and without backtesting the 0.236. It's possible we see that backtest come through in the coming days. But this does not necessarily, yet, signal a macro trend reversal. 4) I do agree that strong rejection on the 0.702 now would be concerning. However, given that the relief rally almost reached that level already, this might be interpreted overall as a sign of strength. Relative strength at least. I'm not 100% bullish on BTC, I must admit. But I don't see the peak of 2017 being repeated right at this moment.
traderview2
⋅
@ianrdouglas, FIb has played perfect. .702 is the bomb retracement level. -30% since i warned of this near perfect similarity.
ianrdouglas
⋅
@traderview2, I still disagree. You're saying the top is in. I see the last major correction before the final wave to top. But I admit, it's very difficult to analyse at this point, and I can't discount entirely that you could be right.
traderview2
⋅
@ianrdouglas, I like your thoughts... It is very hard. One thing telling me Top may not be in yet is the bounce off 200EMA. Thanks for your thoughts.
nzahir
⋅
@traderview2, so this can be a local top and some more room down to under 40k, then sideways until late summer/fall and then one more blow off top?
traderview2
⋅
Yes that was a mistake but I checked with the wick included and it doesn’t change much. Still same area of rejection. And yes I agree it’s smaller percentage but that will be the case if there is no blow off top. Thanks for sharing!