i've been thinking a lot about where cycle tops and bottoms might be, but it occurred to me that i hadn't given enough thought to when we might expect these tops/bottoms to occur. lengthening cycles are plausible, if not inevitable as the market continues to grow. and to the diehard 4-year-cycle theorists, i'll just say this: bitcoin will not be king forever. and even if bitcoin does remain the dominant force in the market for the foreseeable future, the 4-year-cycle will become less potent as each halving brings us closer to total BTC supply, and the rest of the market will gradually decouple from bitcoin.
as an ancillary to my top/bottom studies of the prior 2 cycles (see ideas below), i've made a quick projection for the bull market end date. based on the same rate of expansion we saw between the 2013 and 2017 bull runs, we can extrapolate 10/24/22 as the projected end of the current bull run. pretty simple. by no means to i expect this to be the exact date that the market tops, but i do think it can give us a rough idea.
market bottom prediction:
market top prediction:
for me, the takeaway is pretty simple: be patient. in this market we're used to everything happening at the blink of an eye. but now with so many players involved, and a market cap this size, we may need to wait a little longer for prices to consolidate and patterns to play out.
fantastic analysis. this should get picked up by @TradingView
reees
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@CRYPTOPICKK, thanks, appreciate the comment!
reees
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@CRYPTOPICKK, @TradingView hasn't acknowledged any of my ideas yet, so i'm not getting my hopes up lol
MillionaireEconomics
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@reees in due time. your work is as good as some of these so called technical analysts on crypto twitter.
MikeMM
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Far too risky to buy late cycle, this could end any minute. find markets in accumulation, why join one thats coming to a close?
reees
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@MikeMM, well first of all, this is certainly not meant to be advice to buy anything. this is just simple statistical extrapolation based on trends, from which you can infer that it's not as late in the cycle as many people think. what are your reasons for suggesting the market is "coming to a close"?
i do certainly agree that there is greater risk in buying in this market now versus buying in 2020 or even earlier this year, but that doesn't mean there aren't significant gains left to be made. it's just something to factor into your risk analysis. at this stage of a bull market, i'm approaching it with two simple rules: (1) use a stop-loss on every open position in my trading account, and (2) use a stop-loss on every position in my long term investment account to sell whatever i'm not willing to hold through a bear market. downside is that you need to keep a substantial percentage of your portfolio on exchanges for an extended period of time.