BITCOIN - 66% Probability For Further Growth!
Do you remember one of my previous post about the $8,000 level? There is discussed about certain directions on the Weekly chart after the Weekly candle close. This discussed week is over and we have to talk this through because this is strongly on the agenda.
Over the past, the Weekly candle has closed above the $8,000 price level three times.
Two times it has moved upwards:
- Breakthrough on 2017 November guided the Bitcoin price into the ATH (all-time high), close at $8,031
- Breakthrough on 2018 April guided the price to the $10,000 price level, close at $8,355
One time it had a fakeout
- Breakthrough on 2018 July was a fakeout, close at $8,216 and next week the candle goes back below $8,000.
Considering these small sample statistics then we have a 66% probability that the Bitcoin price can make a run to the $10,000 but let's search some confirmations and some price action criteria which will support that current move to the $10,000 and the confirmation area is pretty clean, if we can't reach higher than the confirmation level then this could be just another fakeout into the statistics. Why 10k? Simple, there just aren't any bigger resistance levels before that!
Last week the second half was full of emotions, the big correction from $8,000 to $6,700 which was discoverable through the candlestick patterns, a jump back upwards which brought out the Head and Shoulders pattern. I made an update about the pattern and after every hour I started to regrate it because the count of Head & Shoulders discoverers on the TradingView made that pattern weaker and weaker - if everybody can see it then there is a pretty high % that it doesn't work out as planned and exactly what happened. Those actions weren't enough yet, on Sunday, we got a big and strong boost (let's call it a Bart move) to the higher levels and the Weekly candle got a close above the $8,000.
As I said, we have a 66% probability that the price may go to the higher levels. The volume is high, several pumps and dumps here and there, so the market situation is risky and hardly recognizable, that's why we need confirmations and we have to search confirmations from the Daily chart.
To be said - the next bullish confirmation should come after the Daily (or 4H, definitely better would be a Daily candle close because of the noise on the lower timeframes) candle close above the green line at $8,489. Then the BTC price has made breakouts upwards from:
- The curve trendline, which has drawn from 5. March 2018. It played a significant role in the last week's correction from 8k to 6,7k, so, it is definitely a big break upwards after the close above of it.
- The first clean resistance, also it played a significant role in the last week's correction and after a break above of this resistance it makes new higher high, which is great considering even the long-term market perspective.
- The round number $8,000.
- Plus, we have a Golden cross on the Daily chart between 100 and 200 EMA's
There is also a little sign, we can call it even fractal or how they call it here but anyway, the last weekend printed into the chart a bullish candlestick pattern (shape) called Morning Star:
From the bottom until the current time we have had three Morning Star candlestick pattern formations. To be said for the smarties, those aren't the textbook formation, as I mentioned here we have to talk about the shapes/indications but the major criterion has to be there - the third/last candle has to close higher than 50% of the first candle full range!
Okay, we have had three Morning Star formations and after those formations, the price has made climbs upwards. The last one was before that rally from $4,000 to $5,000. I made that call and it played out very nicely, even more than expected!
Currently, we have a fourth Morning Star candlestick pattern formation on the Daily chart. The Sundays candle completed the pattern and completed the Weekly candle which made a break above the $8,000! It is a really good sign if the candlestick formation is supporting the breakout from some patterns or from some certain price levels and currently, the EMA's Golden cross works also as a breakout supporter. Currently, it is a good confirmation because we made a break above the round number with Morning Star candlestick pattern which will be a sign for further growth.
SUMMARY: We had a really nice last Weekly bullish candle close above the $8,000. The close end up on the Daily chart with a bullish candlestick pattern Morning Star which is a good momentum indication that the Bitcoin price can go higher in this week. Plus we had a small sample statistics that the pump may come with a 66% probability BUT the current situation is a bit risky and we need to get a confirmation. The next bullish confirmation to the $10,000 comes after the Daily or 4H candle (definitely, more reliable is a Daily candle close) has closed above the curve trendline, above the "first clean resistance area" which is also new HH area).
Shortly I add a smaller timeframe analysis, about the strong levels below the current price, when this $8,000 breakout becomes invalid and etc.
Feel free to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Have a nice day,
Cheers!
"Trading rule 1: Predefine what a loss is in every potential trade.
Trading rule 2: Execute your losing trades immediately upon the perception that they exist.
By predefining and cutting your losses short, you are making yourself available to learn the
a best possible way to let your profits grow."
– Mark Douglas
Read more about the $8,000 price level:
*This information is mostly used for educational purposes only!
Over the past, the Weekly candle has closed above the $8,000 price level three times.
Two times it has moved upwards:
- Breakthrough on 2017 November guided the Bitcoin price into the ATH (all-time high), close at $8,031
- Breakthrough on 2018 April guided the price to the $10,000 price level, close at $8,355
One time it had a fakeout
- Breakthrough on 2018 July was a fakeout, close at $8,216 and next week the candle goes back below $8,000.
Considering these small sample statistics then we have a 66% probability that the Bitcoin price can make a run to the $10,000 but let's search some confirmations and some price action criteria which will support that current move to the $10,000 and the confirmation area is pretty clean, if we can't reach higher than the confirmation level then this could be just another fakeout into the statistics. Why 10k? Simple, there just aren't any bigger resistance levels before that!
Last week the second half was full of emotions, the big correction from $8,000 to $6,700 which was discoverable through the candlestick patterns, a jump back upwards which brought out the Head and Shoulders pattern. I made an update about the pattern and after every hour I started to regrate it because the count of Head & Shoulders discoverers on the TradingView made that pattern weaker and weaker - if everybody can see it then there is a pretty high % that it doesn't work out as planned and exactly what happened. Those actions weren't enough yet, on Sunday, we got a big and strong boost (let's call it a Bart move) to the higher levels and the Weekly candle got a close above the $8,000.
As I said, we have a 66% probability that the price may go to the higher levels. The volume is high, several pumps and dumps here and there, so the market situation is risky and hardly recognizable, that's why we need confirmations and we have to search confirmations from the Daily chart.
To be said - the next bullish confirmation should come after the Daily (or 4H, definitely better would be a Daily candle close because of the noise on the lower timeframes) candle close above the green line at $8,489. Then the BTC price has made breakouts upwards from:
- The curve trendline, which has drawn from 5. March 2018. It played a significant role in the last week's correction from 8k to 6,7k, so, it is definitely a big break upwards after the close above of it.
- The first clean resistance, also it played a significant role in the last week's correction and after a break above of this resistance it makes new higher high, which is great considering even the long-term market perspective.
- The round number $8,000.
- Plus, we have a Golden cross on the Daily chart between 100 and 200 EMA's
There is also a little sign, we can call it even fractal or how they call it here but anyway, the last weekend printed into the chart a bullish candlestick pattern (shape) called Morning Star:
Okay, we have had three Morning Star formations and after those formations, the price has made climbs upwards. The last one was before that rally from $4,000 to $5,000. I made that call and it played out very nicely, even more than expected!
Currently, we have a fourth Morning Star candlestick pattern formation on the Daily chart. The Sundays candle completed the pattern and completed the Weekly candle which made a break above the $8,000! It is a really good sign if the candlestick formation is supporting the breakout from some patterns or from some certain price levels and currently, the EMA's Golden cross works also as a breakout supporter. Currently, it is a good confirmation because we made a break above the round number with Morning Star candlestick pattern which will be a sign for further growth.
SUMMARY: We had a really nice last Weekly bullish candle close above the $8,000. The close end up on the Daily chart with a bullish candlestick pattern Morning Star which is a good momentum indication that the Bitcoin price can go higher in this week. Plus we had a small sample statistics that the pump may come with a 66% probability BUT the current situation is a bit risky and we need to get a confirmation. The next bullish confirmation to the $10,000 comes after the Daily or 4H candle (definitely, more reliable is a Daily candle close) has closed above the curve trendline, above the "first clean resistance area" which is also new HH area).
Shortly I add a smaller timeframe analysis, about the strong levels below the current price, when this $8,000 breakout becomes invalid and etc.
Feel free to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Have a nice day,
Cheers!
"Trading rule 1: Predefine what a loss is in every potential trade.
Trading rule 2: Execute your losing trades immediately upon the perception that they exist.
By predefining and cutting your losses short, you are making yourself available to learn the
a best possible way to let your profits grow."
– Mark Douglas
Read more about the $8,000 price level:
*This information is mostly used for educational purposes only!
Kommentera:
Currently, it has tested it and got rejections but watch out if this breaks: