Fun little observation: when measuring from bottom to top, each of the last two cycles has yielded 19.6% the rate of returns from its prior cycle. If that were to continue, it would put this cycle's top around $74,820.
A couple of caveats:
(1) The numbers will vary depending on where your top/bottom values come from. E.g. on Bitstamp, last cycle was 25% of its prior cycle's returns, as opposed to 19.6%. That can make a big difference when you extrapolate, so it would be foolish to think of $74,820 as a target from a trading perspective. For instance, if we use the 25% we saw on Bitstamp, that would put price above $95k. BUT, the 19.6% value comes from the @TradingView BTCUSD index, which should be more accurate than looking at the data from any one particular exchange (derived from Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken and Mt.Gox).
(2) The $69k high that we already saw was dangerously close to this $75k projection, so it's certainly possible that we've topped, though I have reason to believe we haven't.
A couple of caveats:
(1) The numbers will vary depending on where your top/bottom values come from. E.g. on Bitstamp, last cycle was 25% of its prior cycle's returns, as opposed to 19.6%. That can make a big difference when you extrapolate, so it would be foolish to think of $74,820 as a target from a trading perspective. For instance, if we use the 25% we saw on Bitstamp, that would put price above $95k. BUT, the 19.6% value comes from the @TradingView BTCUSD index, which should be more accurate than looking at the data from any one particular exchange (derived from Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken and Mt.Gox).
(2) The $69k high that we already saw was dangerously close to this $75k projection, so it's certainly possible that we've topped, though I have reason to believe we haven't.
