I remain bullish on BTC. I had expected a lower low than the one that came in, but I didn't expect a full reversal of trend. In my view, corroborated by looking back at 2017 (see linked analysis), April has simply witnessed another relatively mild correction.
In being mild, this has been a concern, because the fifth wave in the seven wave structure I see being printed (see linked analysis) should be deeper than Wave 1 or Wave 3, and it was, but only marginally so relative to Wave 1.
This is why I expected 45.2, and not 46.9, which is what we got (see Scenario 2 linked below, and Scenario 1 for a full explanation).
Some have noted that GOLD/BTC reached and halted at a shallow resistance/support area. Others have noted the coincidence between GOLD in March 2020 and BTC now. We also have historical support and resistance levels to take note of on the BTC.D chart.
At any rate, while I do expect BTC to go on from here to print the seventh wave, those going long on the basis of today's price action might want to note what happened in both January and February before the main upswing got going.
In both cases, there were fakeouts.
So far, I have been waiting for price to retest the consolidation area immediately before the bottom came in, and I would still expect that area to be revisited. So while BTC could reach up now as far as 58.9, it wouldn't surprise me to see a swift descent to retest 50.8 before continuing to the upside.
Note that on the macro Fibonacci (bottom left), BTC is currently pushing through the 3.0. It is very normal as Fibonacci levels are penetrated to see a drop back two levels or more before continuance.
However, past performance is no guarantee when looking to the future.
Feel free to comment.
Kommentera
⋅
02 May 2021 07:24:38: The more time passes, the more unlikely it feels that BTC is going to revisit 50k. This would remain the level I would expect to be retested, in order to establish a backtested support level, but while BTC is not exactly showing strong upside momentum, it is showing bullish strength nonetheless in holding to the levels it is printing. Wave 1 managed to hold above the 0.5 local Fibonacci, and held the 2.786 on the macro Fibonacci. Wave 2 is stronger still, so far: holding above the 0.382 on the local Fibonacci and holding, again so far, to the 3.0 on the macro Fibonacci. If 58.6 continues to range as we move into the trading week, the first week of the trading month, we might start to see upside momentum pick up. CME gaps like above. Alts are itching to push up. Perhaps the base is as confirmed as it will be, and BTC starts the grind forward before really picking up pace as upper levels start to get cleared. That all said, until BTC clears and holds 59.6, which is the 0.702 on the entire downside correction, we cannot confidently project a continuance to the upside. The 0.702 is the level one would expect a retracement rally from a local top to reach. Rejection there might put lower lows than 50k back in view. Breaking through the 0.702 would move focus to 70-80k as the next significant high.
Kommentera
⋅
02 May 2021 08:15:02: BTC edging on the zone of filling in the CME gap:
Good morning
You are the one who does the best analysis on TrekkingView.
you are the best.
We support. Always waiting
Start every morning looking at your treading view
Thank you for your support.
KOREAN-
ianrdouglas
⋅
@NEM_NEW, > Thank you. But you should always use anything I post simply as a proposition, and then try to destroy it. The reason I post at all is because I know the importance of doing your own research, so my charts are simply stations along my journey, and I could be very much wrong, and have been wrong many times in the recent past. But thanks again.
SmokeyCharts
⋅
Thoughts on the weekly cross on MACD? Its got me freaked out......Top in?
ianrdouglas
⋅
@hoova08, Take whatever I say with the bucket of salt it deserves, but I'm not tremendously concerned with the MACD read. I agree it's something to take note of, but if May is largely green, that crossover could run close or parallel fairly easily on the weekly. I don't know if it's just confirmation bias at this point, which is inevitable when we have expectations based on TA of the charts, but I do expect one more leg up. Thereafter, I'm not so sure. The complexity is such that my peanut brain struggles. I have a rough macro perspective, but it could prove wrong. However, if I had to make a bet at the table, my bet currently would be that the top is not yet in, but it's close. That said, I'm currently looking again at the DXY, and the inverse relation and delayed time correlation with BTC. Not sure yet what that picture will read. I do agree with near everyone else that the medium term is bullish for BTC. I'm not entirely convinced that we won't see a two peak cycle, with much higher highs towards the year's end. Nonetheless, the year is pushing on. Soon we'll be in June, and the tail end projections for BTC usually fall around October, so if we're to see a major dip and a large rally and recovery, BTC should be getting on with it. The drop in volume is very apparent, to my eye. BTC is moving ever more slowly. Though as is said, slow to climb, quick to fall. For time being, to me there is still room for one more push up. Factor in alt season, and it seems almost obligatory, unless the decoupling really starts to ramp up (like 10x from what we're currently seeing). If alts really start to go crazy and BTC is still not moving up, then I might reassess. But I still see the seventh wave to print.
SmokeyCharts
⋅
@ianrdouglas, I appreciate your detailed response. I must have a sesame seed brain if your a peanut brain lol. Following an look forward to your ideas.
ianrdouglas
⋅
@hoova08, You've either got to be in this space since the beginning (and I wasn't) or have a brain equivalent to Nikola Tesla (and I sure don't) to have any real grasp on what on earth is really going on — grasp at least enough to project future probabilities. My goal is not this bull run, but the next, and the coming bear market. I hope only to build experience without getting recked. Anything else is a bonus.
SmokeyCharts
⋅
@ianrdouglas, haha yeah this is my first go at crypto and I got in february... just try to learn and earn some money. I am really looking forward to the bear market cause thats where the life changing money is made. So far ive made all the rookie mistakes of buying high and panic selling, luckily im still in the green. Buy the dip and scared money dont make no money is what Im working on. Good luck!
You are the one who does the best analysis on TrekkingView.
you are the best.
We support. Always waiting
Start every morning looking at your treading view
Thank you for your support.
KOREAN-