Few clues: -look at first support line (start ~223$); each time we touched line price went up hard with rsi>70 -this strong bullish trend doesn't care about RSI, so we see bearish divergence -we jumped into 2nd support line and made 2 HH -now we're touching line 3rd time, so we "should" make solid bounce and form right shoulder of HS (left shoulder started with A) -however we're in bigger HS, started with July, 3rd, and our upper-support line is neckline :-)
So what now?
Best answer is "who knows?" but I guess that this strong bull support is out of ammo which could be start of new bearish cycle. Also price should adjust with bear div and earlier or later meet again main support line. In my opinion if we break 2nd, upper support line, we won't bounce again from main support line. 2nd support line would be resistance, ichi 4h above us and we'll probably break main support line with big volume and new low which will be end of C wave. This low of C wave should be under A low (272$) and above (i believe) .618 fibo (256$). The really bearish ending could spike with huge volume hammer into .786-.681 zone.
My 2 bear scenario
Yellow - with right shoulder of HS Red - without serious bounce
Invalidation - new high 299$+... So let's say that 300$ Moon is be or not to be for bulls. I'm bear and i'm happy with that:)
Good solid reasoning and great explanation. I agree with your sentiment, but I would say that...my chart is almost identical to yours :)
oldstout
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thank you:)
purpurato59
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Damn it,
it's coming quite as you said and I had to cancel my long
oldstout
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I hope you get small loss.:) Cut losses is hard but great tactic. If this chart will be good, we should bounce now to upper line (287-289$?) and go more down. I closed short and open long.