For experienced traders, this will be obvious. But for the casual investor, this is the simplest way to determine when to buy bitcoin. In fact, I would say it's as close to a "sure thing" as you will find in the crypto market.
You can see that the last two cycle bottoms occurred when weekly RSI dipped below 30. While there's no guarantee that RSI will dip to 30 any time soon, if it does, you can bet there's a very high probability that price is at or near the bottom.
However, I still think there is a reasonable chance that this bull cycle isn't over: So I'll be averaging in on every dip from here to the bottom.
Kommentera
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One point of clarification regarding bitcoin and RSI:
For most assets, RSI > 70 suggests its overbought, and RSI < 30 means oversold. You'll see many charts where RSI goes well below 30 before price bottoms out. This is just a general rule of thumb though, and is not necessarily the case for bitcoin. For me, bitcoin isn't overbought until RSI > 80, and is oversold anywhere below 40, so I would argue that bitcoin is treading in oversold territory as we speak:
Would love your current thoughts wit the week BTC has had
reees
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@joelylun, my thoughts haven't changed much in a macro sense. The global macroeconomic picture certainly looks a bit more grim than it did when I posted this back in January, so i wouldn't be surprised to see BTC dip a little more which means alts could bleed heavily, and an extended period of sideways while we await the forecasted "recessions". Not giving financial advice, but if i'm being honest i can tell you i'm buying the f*ck out of everything at the moment and will continue to do so. For BTC specifically, I'm not as bullish as some, but I think something like this is definitely reasonable/probable:
joelylun
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@reees Thank you for the reply. the exchanges always seemed like a weak point to me so while I think this is good long term, who knows how long the pain will last. Have a good week!
FuturesTradex
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what do you think for monthly Macd broke down for Btc and Dow jones etc
reees
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@yildirimdubbai, really tough so say. i will say though that i don't think that the recent BTC dip is a sign of any sort of trouble specific to the crypto market, as we can see a similar pattern in other markets around the world: