This is my trading plan for the Crude Oil. As far as I can see we just broke the blue trend line, looks like a good place for a correction. The plan is very simple, buy at the green support lines when they break, sell when you start a correction.
Things are going to get a little ugly over the next few years.
Tech_time
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So utilizing a seasonal short on the US indexes in September wouldn't be a bad idea I guess?
Tech_time
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I don't think oil can fall to $30 economically though. Supply would dry up too fast due to upstream bankruptcies.
smitheric1970
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A bundle of US companies defaulting, I'm sure, I think that process is already in the works. But a small percentage comes from the US. As far as actual supply, who knows? Iran could be adding tot he glut soon enough. I believe that the 56.50 area will be a long term magnet that we will eventually come back up to.
Tech_time
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I'm not just talking about US off-shore frackers. There are plenty of international E&P oil companies that have a cash flow breakeven well over 50/bbl. Cost of borrowing is through the roof for these businesses...we're seeing credit ratings slashed left and right.
smitheric1970
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Agreed 100% but... they need the cash flow regardless of prices...
smitheric1970
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Great chart! I am in agreement on our pulling back of of the current upper trend line. However, I am curious on your thoughts on us currently being in an overall uptrend? I believe the current (purple) trend will hold to new lows.