As you can see from this chart, the DXY has been creating CUPS ever since the $ de-pegged from the GOLD standard on the order of President Nixon in 1971. Not only that but, with the exception of 1982-1986, there has been a "Ceiling" or Strong line of resistance, that PA will not cross BUT the Cups have been getting Deeper on each occasions. No gains, bigger Losses We are now approaching that "Ceiling" once again and PA is possibly NOT going to reach that line before Dropping away again. The Real world situation that the $ finds itself facing is with little doubt, the most adverse it has faced yet.
Currently we are seeing the US banking system under pressure and liquidity being placed in various organisations to help. The State Treasury is also under serious pressure as the $ is pushed aside in international transactions. The Loss of the use of the Petro$ has already cost the USA Billions and may well be the unspoken factor in the loss of support in Banks. IT should be noted that the Use of the PETRO$ began in 1971, when the $ walked away from the Gold standard
The $ is also facing stiff competition for the First time in its life, for the very foundation of Banks. CRYPTO is making itself felt and the reaction of the USA Will be very telling in the future. Currently, The USA, or the BANKS, are very Hostile to the "young pretender" and this may well weaken the $ against Crypto
What ever happens on Wed, 22nd, when the FED proposes it new level of interest rates, any gains by the $ will be short lived due to the reasons mentioned above. The REAL question is how will it recover? And When ? Will it even reach the neckline of its current CUP ? Traditionalists may well support the $ and this alone may push it higher but the outside pressure will surely weaken even them MAKE OR BREAK TIME
That is a decent pattern. If that pattern does hold, there could be another push higher, and then a steep decline. What will the catalyst be to push the USD higher? The FED possibly going against the gain and surprising the market with a 50 basis point hike? Probably not. Maybe something else? More bank failures and traders and investors pushing back into safe havens. How about for the decline? The ECB and BOE will definitely need to raise rates as rates are above 8% and 10% respectively. I am on the sidelines for now and will see how March ends. Thanks for the analysis.
Orriginal
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@DollarSaenz, In all honesty and its an idea for you, but BITCOIN is a VERY VERY good bet.....the only real option against the $ is normally GOLD but now Bitcoin an dother Crypto have proved themselves to be valis options. Bitcoin is the daddy and with a lot of support - Have a look.. I am all in - BUT DYOR, I am not advising you lol
DollarSaenz
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@Orriginal, I was thinking of bitcoin, but then I would have to change my username to BitcoinSaenz. Yeah, I've been looking at BTC and ETH.