for all the reasons on the charts below--i need to add also on the H4 chart, in order to reach above 136, the blue-green-red line pattern is wrong, ie not a setup indicating a bullish continuation. BUT should it occur, since we are looking at H4 candles, it would take at least 8 to 10 candles (32 to 40 hours) to turn the boat around, UNLESS, of course, we get a huge monster spike up, in which case all bets are off. furthermore, given the euro meeting underway, 1 erroneous headline and the euro will spike one way, and then the other way when a correction is issued. basically with news event of this magnitude, i think we had better forget technical analysis to be on the safe side.
That's interesting you see the potential for a pullback to 132.90ish area. Could be a possibility. EUR/JPY seems desperate to shake off longs, then seems to pull back its resiliency. You are right, the CCI is still pointing up, both on our 60 mins and a nice V snap on our 240 chart.
Also interesting we both share upward target zone of 136.40
I am anticipating a large move up with the "good news" that Greece will meet its payment obligations to the IMF.
isomorph
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re 136.40 ... well, give or take +/-20 pips around the area where we have previous peaks and yearly pivot support 1, now potential resistance.
on days like these, i rather sit on the sidelines as literally anything can make it pop and since i don't have headline reading algos set up on cross-connects at Equinix, i wouldn't be able to react fast enough.
i am surprised you are will to stake money on an 'anticipation'. why take that extra risk and not wait til the fundamental news ebb and flow is over and then go back to TA when waters have become safer?
EURObull
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We were able to see the long setup last week. The news is profoundly manipulated and if you watch how these large moves are orchestrated, the charts always show us their "tell" before the major news releases are announced.
isomorph
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i see... could you please tell us how you have come to believe that 'The news is profoundly manipulated' and that 'these large moves are orchestrated'? what's your source of information on that?
EURObull
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5 years of committed study of EUR/JPY
isomorph
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are you saying that by just reading the charts for 5 years your were able to notice price action patterns indicating manipulation? you don't have an inside source working at some hedge fund somewhere? ;)
EURObull
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It's been a long and quite humbling road. No buddies at any hedge funds helping. Lots of open mindedness, books, videos, and lectures. Thousands and thousands of hours staring at charts (still loving it).
isomorph
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lol i know the feeling. i too spent 1,000s of hours looking at charts, and still am hooked on it. there's something totally fascinating about these candlestick charts.
here are the links to the screenshots:
cl.ly/image/3g282n3A0C45
cl.ly/image/2y2H0216193G
cl.ly/image/3l3F1t3L2F0g