Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X SharesArca
Beskrivning
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This is a tough spot for me to possibly predict any directional movement. While I do think that Jnug will drop at the beginning of the week and probably touch the $16.80 level with the help from gold dropping, the Fed decision is weighing on me. Just about everywhere I read it says that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday. If they do raise rates then I think it is safe to say that gold will finally and truly breakout and stay up this time around. This would take Jnug up with it somewhere along the blue arrow. However,.....we have been having weaker data than was expected, and on around June 20th, the Brexit talks begin. Since there is a lot of turmoil throughout Europe right now, I am wondering if these factors will have the Fed wait on a rate hike this week. They waited last year right before the Brexit vote so maybe they will wait again. Another thing is ....on a purely technical analysis perspective, gold still has not completed a true Intermediate cycle low (ICL). The RSI on the weekly has to get to the oversold level and the medium term trend lines are supposed to be broken before calling a ICL. All we have had are two good DCL's. I am leaning bearish for both gold and Jnug for the next couple of weeks as I am thinking that the Fed does not raise rates. I also think that the weaker inflation index's may also keep the Fed at bay. On my Jnug chart I am showing the possible wedge a,b,c,d,e forming. It appears that we are dropping into the "d" and that would mean a small "e" pop. Usually when "e" is up, then what comes next is a breakdown. The BBands are still constricted. So a big move is still imminent. But nothing is for certain at this point. A few days ago I said it was safe to be short Gold. And I stand by that call until Wednesday morning. But it is probably safe at that point to wait on the sidelines to see what the Fed decides before going long or short for a longer term trade. If there is no Fed rate hike then I think that gold will finally fall into its ICL and get down to the 1165 - 1170 range before bouncing. I think that would happen in late June. That drop would tank Jnug and probably follow my red arrows. GL on whatever you decide to do
Kommentera
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gold chart There is a bearish divergence on the RSI which has just begun to play out. We will see if it is allowed to finish by going into the oversold territory. By the way, if there is no rate hike then look out below, way below. We would probably get a bounce like the arrows show but then, just like I explained for Jnug, if we are in an "a,b,c,d,e" wedge, then this thing will tank hard into the end of the year and beginning of next year.
Kommentera
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Gold Chart Update So now that I have been proven correct about gold going down, the question is, how much lower will it go. In my opinion, we are currently in wave 3 down. We completed wave 1 and 2 already. I think that the most likely place for us to start a wave 4 is at the neck line (colored brown). I think we could travel along that neck line for at least a couple days before starting a wave 5 down to the 1170 area. Earlier I thought 1163 but this took a little bit longer than I thought. This should finish it trip down in late June to early July before we start the next Intermediate cycle. However...I would like to give the opinion once again,....that we are going to bounce for a wave E and then we really start to tank. It is becoming more and more clear that we are still in a bear gold market. This is just a continuation of a correction for a multiyear rally. According to Elliot wave theory, we are supposed to have a proportional ABC correction to the 5 waves up. Since the bottom in late 2015 was only 5 large waves down, then I concluded that that was only "A". The move up in 2016...if you zoom out, looks like a nearly perfect zig zag for a "B" wave. So what is left is the "C" wave down.....way way down. Since we had a false breakout like I said and are now dropping hard, I am feeling confident. Sorry about the early call for JDST, cant always predict when Jnug is going to rally out of thin air. I would like to point out something else that I have been eyeing for my bottom. Have you ever heard of the math principle called "Sine Curve". I believe that gold is in the process of completing a Sine curve. So we started it in 2011 and dropped below the line. Then we crossed above the line and traveled along it in 2015. So according to the Sine curve math theory .. we are supposed to come back and touch it. I will post below my weekly chart with the very bold purple line that I am using for that Sine curve center line. This is partially why I think we are not in a gold bull market yet. As far as Jnug....I think that Jnug has the potential to drop to $10 and possibly down to $8.15 before we bounce. This is exciting....are we having fun yet?! LOL...its only fun and exciting when I am correct. HEY...where is that guy that said not to short the bull trend? I thought he was going to repost....HMMMM
Kommentera
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Gold chart update This is where I believe gold is at this point...currently working on wave 4. I am not sure how long it will work on wave 4 but then this should drop. I would also like to point out that the 50 DMA and 100 DMA will be crossing soon. Maybe within the next week to two weeks. When that happens then gold and miners should really drop hard. I am anticipating a bounce at the bottom of the wedge but then.....when the 50 DMA crosses the 200 DMA, that is a death cross and lookout below. That is a ways off...lets see how this plays out.
It really looks like JNUG/JDST does not care at all what gold does currently.
I think we gotta start looking into other indicators, as funny as it sounds.
There is currently no pattern whatsoever - XAUUSD/JNUG/JDST has a totally random correlation...
dsankie21
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I check your site everyday to compare notes. Would you update when possible? I don't care if you are wrong because you've done a damn good job the past few months. This is a very difficult point to make predictions.
SalN
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@dsankie21, I understand. However, nothing has really changed for me. I am still just waiting for the ICL drop to fully commence. Looks like gold might still be working on wave 4. Jnug dropped at the end of the day for no apparent reason. Maybe it is signaling the coming drop. I am looking at this ICL to possibly not bottom until middle July. The big move in gold that people are anticipating is going to be down and it's going to be swift
@Dawnbrooke, I think so. In my mind the JNUG would rise next two months or so. I am fully in JNUG from yesterday´s low incl. margins again. However I am mostly a day trader.
dickinson
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In my mind gold is going in a "a" wave from the 1247 level at the 1262 level, then at "b" back at the present level 1252-4 and finally at "c" move more up. JNUG is strong now. My guess is that low of JNUG was in at the 3,8 (before reversed split) level or so at the beginning of May. The GDX has resistance at the 22,60 level and need go through fast. If not then micro ii down at about 22,19 in play or if break down more then retest last low at the 21.75 level and if truncated then low at about 21 level. However the JNUG looks more strong then the GDX.
bingwu
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nice report. But JDST still down despite gold flat and XAU index decline. GDX/DUST behave much more normal.
Dawnbrooke
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Is there any update on the chart? Does anyone still hold JDST?
SalN
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@Dawnbrooke, I am still holding jdst. In my opinion gold has not completed its ICL yet and Will probably continue down to the 1170 range over the next week or two. Nothing go straight down and since I am not a daytrader I will hold through small delays
I think we gotta start looking into other indicators, as funny as it sounds.
There is currently no pattern whatsoever - XAUUSD/JNUG/JDST has a totally random correlation...