This simple but elegant indicator is nothing but the ISM Manufacturing Index represented with a baseline of 45. Once the ISM line breaches the baseline it indicates a recession is guaranteed if not already under way.
This indicator has perfectly predicted the last seven recessions and is currently trending down towards the baseline as we speak. Like, share and save this indicator so you can check in on it regularly as it could cross below the baseline within a matter of months or even weeks from now.
This is just one indicator that sits along side the multitude of other recession indicators I have posted recently that all point towards a recession beginning late this year, check them out!
It seems that the ISM doesn't factually predict but rather confirms recessions. For investors its information is too late.
JBdxb
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@Tompe, agree with you on that. It is a coinciding confirming indicator and as far as I can see there is no technical or other basis for stating that it will cross the 45 baseline in October. It could just as well fluctuate a bit more and drop below the baseline in 2021. Or 2023. Or tomorrow.
TheEconomyCreator
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Where can I find this indicator so that I may apply to my chart?
svyarnall
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@TheEconomyCreator, Type in MAN_PMI where the ticker symbol goes. it's an index not an indicator.