Here is the Natural Gas 4 hour chart. I still think we are in a grey area and some type of confirmation should be waited upon. We could very well be in a zig zag corrective pattern. We will know in the next couple days. If it drops again into that red zone then I think I will buy UGAZ again. On a side note....if by chance UGAZ dropped below the red zone then perhaps the cycles do work. But we will cross that bridge when we get there.
I've been trying to learn much about this lately.. Thursdays at 1030am EST and when long range weather forecasts change are the real drivers of the price swings. I think it will be long term bearish (due to high production), but there will be a record draw this Thursday from the past 2 cold weeks. Although a large draw is probably priced in, if the real draw is much bigger or smaller, I think it will tip it one way or the other. Thurs morning should be the date for this...