SIE is potentially forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulder formation which topped out at 61.8% of the previous ABCD down move to 100 in Apr'18. The Donald is gunning for Germany and global trade, this can't be too good for SIE. If you see what happened to GE, this could happen to SIE considering they are in the same business. Neckline is at 116 with the a potential downside target to 100, -12% move. Potentially we might see an overshoot to 95, which would link this down move to the previous ABCD for a 135 pattern. Only question is if do you want for the neck line to get broken or take a small flyer at current prices?
Is it valid again, and why did I close my short. I hate my life !
WellTrainedMonkey
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@Benjingtai, this is trading. When we get it wrong, we take the lumps and move on.
Benjingtai
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So were do you think were going from here?
WellTrainedMonkey
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@Benjingtai, 1st thought would be get out dodge as the thesis has been invalidated since the Donald gave Germany a free get out jail card. 2nd thought is I do not know how will the current price action will develop as it does not fit any pattern analysis for now. Considering the price action has started to trend, I would be incline not to fight it.
Benjingtai
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@WellTrainedMonkey, I closed Position first Thing at market opening, and will propably not invest anymore till market Report. I have one stock that I feel could have a lot of potential but I cant identify any pattern, ist Deutsche Post. Could you make an Analysis for it?
Benjingtai
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Have you considered that there is a bigger inverse head and shoulders pattern starting at your C (left shoulder) D being the head .... (I have a chart but don´t know how to post this here...
WellTrainedMonkey
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@Benjingtai, that is most certainly within the realm of possibilities with the neckline around the 122 level.
Benjingtai
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@WellTrainedMonkey, Im shorting but im getting the feeling the formation is inactive as the right shoulder is heading higher...
WellTrainedMonkey
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@Benjingtai, in terms of probability, a sustained break above 119 would invalidate the H&S formation as 119 marks the 78.6% retracement level relative to the "head".