With fresh stock splits, tightening election polls, eviction madness about to start, more schools open, the Fed, Congressional inaction, COVID positivity rates ready to climb, and maybe football, The first 2 weeks in September will bump lower.
I am not using those events to justify the analysis but the catalyst could be in there somewhere. I am using enhanced Elliott Wave analysis for the following modeling and projections.
Intermediate wave 3 was strong, but was set to end. Initial forecast was for it to last around 42 days, it made it to 43 on Friday.
Intermediate wave 4 should last around 7-13 trading days. My specific target is 10.1 days based on my models. Wave A typically lasts 39% of the the overall length of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 4). Wave B typically lasts 25%, and wave C is 37%.
The price drop could be greater than 225 points, but my specific forecast is a drop to around 3310 or 199.23 points from the ATH. Wave A typically moves 74.5% of the overall drop. Wave B typically gains 45% points of the overall drop and wave C drops about 67%.
All told. I have wave A lasting about 3.9 days and dropping 149 points. Wave B could gain for 2.5 days and claw back 90 points before wave C drops 134 points over 3.7 days.
I have placed all of this on a 2 hour chart in order to track the movement better.
I am overall long for now, but will be short through September 11, 2020.
Do you see the possibility that we have ended wave 4 here? In your most recent chart you're expecting lower.
When will you enter the market for the last leg up?
StockSignaler
⋅
@thebrewer35, The end of wave 4 is possible, but the ratios between what would equate to each wave does not fit well enough. I hit my reversal projection fairly accurately, however, believe it is possible this only completed Minor wave A of Intermediate wave 4.
thebrewer35
⋅
@cguthrie922, Thank you very much for responding. I see that as well, and will plan my exit at B (50% retrace) based on my analysis. I appreciate your confirmation! Cheers!
bappykhalidhasan0
⋅
good analysis
Miketinkle
⋅
It’s amazing . Thanks for posting
BradButler
⋅
Beautiful explanation... keep it up..
Arielwillson
⋅
Keep posting
Annakowalska
⋅
Above all your analysis & explanation is clear to me... thanks
When will you enter the market for the last leg up?