As you can see, this price channel along with it's median lines, has defined every major turning point for the past 22 years. At each touch highlighted by the white arrows there has been a significant multi-year change of direction.
Noteworthy turning points on this price channel: 2000 - 2002 - Dot Com Crash 2007-2008 - The Big Short - Financial Collapse March 2009 Low - Start of Largest Bull Market Known To Man March 2020 High - Covid Panic April 2020 - Low Point Before Things Got Stupid December 2021 - Beginning Of The End????
I'm posting this because we are currently at the 1/4 median line where there appears to be some support. I have expected the S&P to test or exceed the previous highs. Is this the point at which that move begins? I have taken the liberty of pasting the blue candle bars to show what that would look like. I expect any advance would not exceed the upper channel line and more than likely respect the white Fibonacci cycle line.
I know this is not a popular opinion at the moment. It may very well be a crazy idea... .but that's trading. Money is made being crazy sometimes. Expect the unexpected.
maddiett305
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very convincing, nice chart thanks
robed1
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I drew the same chart months ago. Worked like a clock. Old channel from the 1990's... caught the top at about $4830 thank-you santa.... I was $25 dollars off and the vix was cheap... such a steep ascent. I think it will seek the midrange of the fork. Still a little lower... nice catch! $4019.50 closing a gap followed by a full candle last April! 2021. That level could actually break down some more potentially if broken too heavily
oliverrathbun
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@robed1, I wasn't onto it until mid December 2021...just in time. Here's the same chart in a daily version. Like your suggesting it will seek out the mid-line.
orange369
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cool chart. I also think index will get to 4700-4750 by the beginning of August. After that, see 2018.
oliverrathbun
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@orange369, Actually the blue bars on this chart were copy and pasted from the 5th wave of 2018. The fractal pattern is very similar isn't it? I could see this unfolding where the fifth wave hugs the lower channel line and never crosses over the median line. That's IF it unfolds as projected. There are a lot of things that have to go right for that to happen I'm afraid.
orange369
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@oliverrathbun, I believe this year is quite similar to 2018. And we're all afraid to play, but you got to do what you got to do. Trading till beginning of August, if 2018 is replica, then a deep dive.