Friends, this chart here speaks a thousand words as to where we are in this "V Shaped Recovery", "Super V" whatever you want to call it. Doesn't matter what you call it, it is simply money printing and bond buying galore by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Donald J Trump. Be very cautious here going forward.
Kommentera
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Had a great Question from @antidota: "do you think that spx will impact btc if it dumps?"
Im not a financial advisor, but I do make my entire living by trading. Here are my thoughts on this:
All markets move together now.Admittedly, BTC was actually developed with the help of Federal Reserve Funding. So, yes...I do believe that BTC will be impacted as well. However, the impact will be dictated by the bond market and the strength of the dollar. If bond yields jump up at the same time that the SPX and DJI dump, I expect to see BTC follow the major indexes. However, if bond yields dump along with the SPX and DJI, etc. I expect to see BTC and other cryptos;gold/silver,etc explode to new all time highs respectively.
Yields going down means that safety has been found in Bonds, and folks are buying bonds. Yields going up means that Bonds are not the safety asset in regard to a market dump from the SPX, DJI, etc.
********Bond Yields go UP, and Major Indexes go down at the same time = BTC, Gold, Silver, etc will go up while the market tanks.
********Bond Yields go DOWN, and Major Indexes go down at the same time = BTC, Gold, Silver, etc will go down with the Major Indexes.
Kommentera
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Notice how Bond Yields tanked first, then the SPX and BTC fell together starting in February?
Bond Yields going down means that safety is being found in Bonds, and cash is leaving the stock market seeking protection. If safety is found in Bonds, than it wont be found in BTC at the same time.
@jasonroy40 do you think that spx will impact btc if it dumps?
jasonroy40
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@antidota, all markets move together now.Admittedly, BTC was actually developed with the help of Federal Reserve Funding. So, yes...I do believe that BTC will be impacted as well. However, the impact will be dictated by the bond market and the strength of the dollar. If bond yields jump up at the same time that the SPX and DJI dump, I expect to see BTC follow the major indexes. However, if bond yields dump along with the SPX and DJI, etc. I expect to see BTC and other cryptos;gold/silver,etc explode to new all time highs respectively.
Yields going down means that safety has been found in Bonds, and folks are buying bonds. Yields going up means that Bonds are not the safety asset in regard to a market dump from the SPX, DJI, etc.
********Bond Yields go UP, and Major Indexes go down at the same time = BTC, Gold, Silver, etc will go up while the market tanks.
********Bond Yields go DOWN, and Major Indexes go down at the same time = BTC, Gold, Silver, etc will go down with the Major Indexes.
Hope this helps!
tomolovegrove
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@antidota, look at what happened to bitcoin last time the market crashed... probably another good buying opportunity though however this crash is likely to be the start of the actual bear market so will be interesting to see how BTC behaves.
jasonroy40
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Notice how Bond Yields tanked first, then the SPX and BTC fell together starting in February?
Bond Yields going down means that safety is being found in Bonds, and cash is leaving the stock market seeking protection. If safety is found in Bonds, than it wont be found in BTC at the same time.
jasonroy40
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@tomolovegrove, the next crash will very likely be the start of the biggest bear market the world has ever seen. Very true.
poister198
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Good chart, although we have to take note, ascending wedges never did once successfully indicate a dump since March (look at how many wedges you can draw on 4h, but no drop ever happened)
Your update on the bond yield makes sense. However that means bond yield must take a downturn before a drop in stock market, and looking at the near 0% bond yield today, it is unlikely to drop, so stocks will not drop (i.e. people will not sell off to buy bonds, why would they since there is no yield)