back in 2008 during the recession we saw unemplyment keep increasing for 19 months straight until it peaked in october 2009 at 10%. unemplyment right now stands at 3.6% at the beggining of the year was 4% we have more people working right now that at the beggining of the year and yet people are screaming recession is coming, retail sales fell for the first time in 5 months, and morons screaming recession . we need to see those number consistanly month over month to start talking serious recession. the only think bugging the market is inflation right now at 8.6% up from 8.3% previous month. with this aggresive rate hikes we should see inflation peaked and start to go down, july report is very important any signs of inflation out of controll will have a huge impact on the market but on the other hand if it decreases it would mean it has peaked and rate hikes would not be so aggresive giving a market relief rally. this is not a trading advise
Too long to explain, but I would like to kindly suggest you watch a couple of videos of experts describing why we are entering a recession. The unemployment will increase, but that will be at a later stage as a result of inflation which will bring on recession. When that moment comes it will be too late to short the market with nice gains. Right now everything points to this happening so better get some nice short positions and make that money!
Todopoderoso
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@carefulRhino97368 those experts are selling you fear . I will believe on a inminente recession once the numbers confirm it.
each recession is different and mostly correlated to gdp. See unemployment during the 1972 -75 recession. Unemployment lowered during the 2nd year and spiked the next 2 years.
Todopoderoso
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@FiboTrader1, rising unemplyment is an indicator that defines a recesion. we are not seeing high unemplyment right now,
oliverrathbun
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@Todopoderoso, Regardless of what the Fed is telling us....they know the only way out of this inflation box is a recession. Too many dollars chasing too few goods. That's what happens when you hand out money the way they did in 2020 and beyond. They weren't even selective to whom they dished the money to. You got it whether or not the pandemic directly impacted your income or not. A fourth grader could have predicted the outcome. Why are we surprised? The recession metrics are coming I'm afraid. How deep will it be? Based on the steep declines in everything you look at my bet is that it will be steep. Unemployment will increase along with it. Both of these are lagging indicators. Once its apparent and in the media, it will be time to look for longer term buying opportunities.
FiboTrader1
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@oliverrathbun, glad we are on the same page. Didn't have the energy to explain myself any further, so glad someone else is talking sense
FiboTrader1
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@Todopoderoso, yes, but unemployment is a lagging indicator... you'll see a recession building before you see unemployment numbers change
Todopoderoso
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@FiboTrader1 we need to see rising unemployment and decreasing retail sales numbers consistently month over month to start talking about a recession . Once’s confirmed it could make the stock market drop for the next 12 months or so