US10Y has been retracing nicely in a textbook A-B-C formation. The retracement is in the late stages with Micro Wave C in the form of an Ending Diagonal. Micro Wave C is likely to sub-divide further below 2.314% before completing the entire retracement from its near term high at 2.479%.
Upon completion of the entire retracement, we can expect yields to shoot past its near 2.479% with ease towards its Mar high 2.631%. A break of the Key Support will imply a different bullish interpretation.
(2 Hour Time Frame)
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Prices have reached a near critical juncture. Initial If yields are to snap out of its short term downward retracement, it should do so very soon before end of the week or early part of next week. A strong break towards Micro Wave B will imply the launch of the new uptrend.
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Yields has continued higher after breaking out the channel. And should work it's way up to its near term high of 2.479%.
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Yields completed a small scale 5 wave impulse wave upwards from its Subminuette wave ii at 2.304%. Since then, Yields are retracing downwards in what appears to be a 3-wave correction. If this is indeed a retracement (instead of a downwards impulse), yields should turn up from current level very soon.
A break below 2.304% implies that Subminuette wave ii is not yet completed. This will only delay the inevitable upwards momentum of the yields.
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Yields has resumed its upward trajectory after completion of its consolidation. Look for continued upward momentum.
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Yields have broken up and has almost hit its prior high of 2.632% in the last couple of sessions. Prices is near critical resistance level where yields have bounced off twice. A strong break and CLOSE above this critical resistance without breaking back below should be a watershed year of Treasury bonds. Any pull back to this Resistance turned Support must hold in order to strengthen the resolve that the bond bear has really commenced.
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Yields have broken its prior high of $2.632. Watch closely for the momentum of the break for the next couple of days.
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Trump's Fed missile has launched. Sit tight. Happy Trading (Own Time Own Target)..