Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).
The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.
In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.
Most recently, the ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.
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04 DEC 2014 - Update:
Friends,
Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).
The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.
In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.
Most recently, the ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.
Superb David! All in one - very nice juxtaposition. I'm not sure that NFP will be soft or we will see once proof that technicals are over fundamentals. Last week we saw after not so bad report dollar selling.
4xForecaster
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19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:
Price is winding a symmetrical consolidation around TG-x. Bearish scenario remains highly probable, as forecast.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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04 DEC 2014 - ADDENDUM: CARNEY PATTERN DEVELOPMENT
- The Bearish Butterfly
As implied in the original analysis, but left without commentary, the pattern trader might have deciphered a potential Scott Carney's Butterfly development.
The XA * 1.618-Fib represents the maximum allowable price expansion, although most of the Butterfly have a propensity to resolve at 1.414 * XA. This maximal expansion speaks rather well of this market's taut properties.
While this pattern lays in the background, the foreground is defined by the predictive/forecasting model, whose target rests slightly above the Butterfly's loftiest wing (Point-D, remaining pending per model).
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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Tech-Note:
Those interested in discreet events, you might notice the 0.618-Fibonacci alignments between the XA impulse and the CD impulse.
More importantly, this alignment comes to rest right at Point-B of the underlying Bearish Butterfly pattern, offering price a resting level of confluence, as defined by the 10782/10759 range - See chart:
David Alcindor
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Why are so many traders pessimistic about the US Dollar's near term/intermediate performance? We've got the possibility of QE springing up where there is deflation or rapidly slowing growth, that's about every developed, developing nation in the world.
US Dollar is strong vs. Everything Else
4xForecaster
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True. As mentioned before, the L/T and M/T outlook is very bullish. On a technical basis, the chart is calling for a respite in the S/T - David
QuantitativeExhaustion
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I suppose if Drahgi drags his feet and China mutes stimulus talks, there could be a US Dollar pushback. However, seems the trend started by US and now Japan is starting a currency war, race to the bottom.
4xForecaster
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Japan has been racing to the abysm for many years.
There is no doubt that USDJPY will keep on going up and up if it is true that central banks (with an S) have coordinated stock purchases across the board - Per Zerohedge.com article:
In any case, this makes any analysis a bit hard to come up with "normal ranges', which is why so many of my recent targets had to be defined by TG-x (extreme targets), which is a parameter I never had to use before this summer or so.
David
Sokun
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Gassho David. Interesting about the extreme targets. Any finer time frames for xag or xau?
04 DEC 2014 - Update:
Friends,
Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).
The following chart is looking at a dual view:
1 - Top is USDJPY
and
2 - Bottom is USDJPY tempered by ES.
The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.
For instance, we have recently looked at:
1 - The possible topping in USDRUB:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/mly72Nnu/ )
2 - The potential near-reversal in XAUUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/bmSQEDux/ )
3 - A technical recovery in GBPUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/K20vQUOS/ )
4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in USDCAD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/TZWtIyLW/ )
5 - A near-complete target-hit in USDCHF at TG-Hi:
Source: tradingview.com/v/cFdnLaJP/ )
6 - A pending 5th wave completion in EURUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/7YuRvla8/ )
7 - And a similar AUDUSD geometric completion in AUDUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/xbIj5UD5/ )
OVERALL:
In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.
Most recently, the ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.
tradingview.com/v/ffEGZOy2/
Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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