Based on the chart, Im seeing nothing else but a sell from here. Weekly has a crazy divergence between the price and the RSI.
A Top was created in February 2016.
Range 19 to 20 rands is a liquidity area. from here if price does not break above 20 rands, then expect more price drops from here.
Based on my TA, from November 2023 till 22 January 2024 we were in a correction cycle to complete wave cycle 2, so from here im expecting a further drop for wave cycle 3 an Impulse down which always comes after correction, then once wave cycle 3 is complete then i will come with an update because we need to also have wave cycle 4 and 5.
So basically this year is gonna be changing for Rands against dollar. Im just here wondering on whats gonna happen with the S.A politics which is gonna lead to rand gaining strength against the dollar, but lets watch and we gonn see. Im just excited for this year man.
Handel aktiv
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Orders still active.
Handel aktiv
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This is gonna be an interesting pair for me this year..
Orders still active..
Kommentera
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this is gonna be an interesting pair
Handel aktiv
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Lets Go!!
Kommentera
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take some profits and lock some, and let this bad boy run..
this pair is Daily bullish and is at a point of interest where bulls will rally to the upside instead and besides the Dollar will be looking stronger this coming week but let's see.
michael.ch.cheng
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Currently oversold in H4.
Goose96
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I like the optimism but what is your timeframe for this idea? There are little to no fundamentals supporting a move to R13/$. Precious metal prices are weak, without a significant bull run in precious metals our export earnings will remain low. International bond investors are dumping SA bonds, we'll need a significant drop in rates from the Federal reserve in order to attract investors back to our local bond market (US 10-year yield is still holding above 4%, its going to have to drop for SA bonds to attract carry traders). Government debt is ballooning and the announcement from the budget speech this week that the SARB will monetize R150 billion of the GFRECA (gold and foreign exchange reserve current account) to help carry the government debt load also does not bode well for investor confidence. Additionally, I expect another major liquidity stress event in the US banking sector this year (like we saw last year) which will pull dollars out of emerging markets.
Theofylrx
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@Goose96, a year or two, and based on my style of analyzing, Fundamentals are legging indicators, so I don't depend on them, the price tells action is what I look at mostly, then fundamentals just for the fun and entertainment of it.
@craigalzim777, check my other rand to 13 posts here, and you will see why. It might not be exactly R13 but rand against the dollar is really looking strong and volume when you check monthly has been dropping, and resulted in a big ** divergence visible which signals dollar weakening against the rand. Also check weekly you will notice that we are currently below and testing a March 2020 high, so based on how i analyze, If the price does not break above this high, bear continuation should be the case for the coming months weeks etc, then if the price breaks above and goes back to R19.7 to R20, then im gonna expect rand to get to 21 at most and then from there a massive drop is expected.
This is just only technical and not considering any fundamentals yet, even though fundamentals are looking great for south africans this year, considering that we will be voting some people out of power, and new ones coming in etc.