Whenever I do any analysis, I always look for ALT scenarios. This takes extra work but this is something that you should always do to keep yourself from being too wedded to your idea and get tunnel-vision. It also allows you to change and react quickly to what the market is doing without needing to go and take time to figure it out. One of the most dangerous things to have in trading is ego. Don't ever get so cocky to think that you are right and the market is wrong. The market is NEVER WRONG!
With that in mind, here is my ALT scenario as to what may happen in Gold during this wave iv. We could see a zig-zap wave iv down to the red trend line before it heads back up. I've already taken a SHORT position.