LastBattle

BTCCNY premiums over BTCUSD - yuan devaluation

Bitcoin as an alternative to capital outflows, with a market cap of just 2 billion can easily be up by multiples from the outflow of yuan from mainland China alone.
People simply do not want yuan if their purchasing power is going down over time.

Current methods of taking capital off mainland China via overseas cash withdrawals are quickly being closed out by the communist government.

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-30...
  • China has capped the amount of money Chinese holders of bank and credit cards can withdraw outside the country, in its latest effort to discourage people from moving badly needed capital offshore.
  • China’s foreign-exchange regulator put a new annual cap on overseas cash withdrawals using China UnionPay Co. bank cards, a UnionPay official said on Tuesday. Under the new rules, UnionPay cardholders can withdraw up to 50,000 yuan ($7,854) overseas during the last three months of this year, and the amount will be capped at 100,000 yuan for all of next year, the official said.
  • State-run UnionPay has a virtual monopoly on processing card transactions in China, meaning the limits extend to nearly all Chinese bank- and credit-card holders. It wasn’t clear when the new cap was issued.
  • The new cap is in addition to an existing 10,000 yuan daily withdrawal limit, part of China’s curbs on how much money can flow across its borders.
  • The move by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange is the latest by Beijing to scrutinize capital outflows.
  • The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank , said earlier this month that its foreign-exchange reserves fell by $93.9 billion, the biggest monthly drop ever, after it surprised the market on Aug. 11 with its decision to devalue the yuan by around 2%.

Key takeaway from the yuan devaluation and capital control:
The collapse of 2 bubbles: housing and stock market.
Weakness in commodities such as steel, copper and oil are seen which signals a weakening economy of which China are the core driver of that expansion since 2008. I suspect that China's GDP is never 8% as it is reported, but rather near 2~4% right now.

China have spent over 100 billion USD in US treasury proceeds to stabilize the yuan collapsing faster due to speculators. The amount of reserves spent at the current rate is unsustainable, it will take just 2 years for them to be used up completely.
Over time yuan will still be heading downwards.
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// @author lastbattle
study(title="BTCCNY premiums over BTCUSD", shorttitle="BTCCNY premiums over BTCUSD")

// Inputs from user

// Functions

// Security
// Excluded bitfinex and huobi because of limited data available. 
//src_btcusd = (security("BITFINEX:BTCUSD", period, close) + security("BITSTAMP:BTCUSD", period, close)) / 2
//src_btccny = ((security("OKCOIN:BTCCNY", period, close) + security("HUOBI:BTCCNY", period, close) + security("BTCCHINA:BTCCNY", period, close)) / 3 ) / security("FX:USDCNH", period, close)

src_btcusd = (security("BITSTAMP:BTCUSD", period, close)) / 1
src_btccny = ((security("OKCOIN:BTCCNY", period, close) + security("BTCCHINA:BTCCNY", period, close)) / 2 ) / security("FX:USDCNH", period, close)

// Val
difference = nz(src_btccny - src_btcusd)

// Plots
plot(difference, style=line,  linewidth=1, color=gray)

h1 = hline(0)
h2 = hline(5)
fill(h1, h2)

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