BTC Bear Experiment

7 juli 2019If this is a real parabolic move, the rocket ship could land anywhere, but I'm skeptical of everything. We went too high, too fast. Most people are talking about 100k BTC and altcoin apocalypse. Unpopular opinion: Is it really true that most alts really so overvalued while BTC is fair? There are tons of small businesses and tech startups with valuations between 10M to 100M that aren't speculative internationally traded assets. Some will win and some will lose, but that's the name of the game everywhere. BTC market cap is sitting at 200B. Higher than intel , netflix , nvidia , and on the same order as facebook . Each of these companies has real products used by hundreds of millions, or even billions of users all over the world. Neither BTC nor its user base are ready for 10x growth, which either means stagnation or plummet. Given the context of the last 6 months... I'll let the chart speak for itself.

One last thing. BTC has never suffered through a global recession. It's a speculative bull market inside of a speculative bull market. Everyone is saying that BTC will be a safe haven during a recession, but there is no data to back that claim. If it ever starts to become a credible threat against the dollar or otherwise, governments can do as they please.

9 juli 2019

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$12750 bitcoin party is a bull trap

15 juli 2019

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Now is not a terrible time for a short term buy. Convergent RSI support, price support, and hidden bullish divergence. Good chance even if we break below price support that it will come back up to convert support into resistance.

16 juli 2019

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That was quick. It could go either way. Short term looks a bit bearish, medium term looks bullish, long term looks bearish. I'd err on the side of selling, but just a guess.

17 juli 2019

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Good guess yesterday! This time I'd err on the side of buying

17 juli 2019

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Good guess again. Sell anywhere above 10k. 10k is safe, 10.16k is moderate risk, 10.24k is high risk, and significantly above that will be a breakout and I'll look for another entry point above resistance.

19 juli 2019

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Garbage manipulation bull trap. Sell

21 juli 2019

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Sticking with my bear narrative until I see convincing volume. It looks like we could be in a rising wedge. I'm hoping for a break to the downside. Could go the other way, not 100% convinced of anything at this moment up or down. My call on July 18th was admittedly cloudy, but we're not so far from 10.6k where I made the call to sell. My prediction is that we'll hit the 8k range around July 27th, and then we'll bounce for a pretty strong upswing (for maybe 3 or 4 weeks). Let's see what happens.

23 juli 2019

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After a couple of days of market constipation, it looks like my previous call was correct. It was a wedge, volume did break, price did break to the downside, and the slope of the trend still supports mid 8k range by July 27th. The only question now is whether to play the 'maybe small bounce' zone between $9450 and $9700.

24 juli 2019

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As expected, we've now entered the small bounce zone territory.


Let's zoom in to my yellow line at the top of the zone. Fascinating.

25 juli 2019

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There's the small bounce!

26 juli 2019

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Bye bye small bounce, thanks for the money! Watch the $9480 zone closely. There is a low but finite statistical likelihood of a second small bounce at that precise level. It's risky to play because a break below that zone will trigger panic selling. Certainly no guarantees here. Let's see what happens.

18 mars 2020

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Better late than never. 4K was a great buy range. 2.8k will be even better.