After a week of consolidation, BTC looks to be primed for a move. Price is still stuck in the resistance box, but the energy is building to the north side. Let's take a look:
1. Moving Averages: On the daily timeframe price is riding the 10 EMA. There were a couple of test to the 20 EMA and found strong support. Each day moving averages are gaining space, which shows the consolidation is gaining momentum.
2. Bollinger band: The bands are narrowing and angled upwards. If the consolidation stays in the current range for a few more days, the bands will start to narrow and flatten out, making a similar setup as the first week of March.
3. RSI: Price action and RSI are making a triangle and almost at the end point. Price can keep doing the same even after the triangle end, making a larger triangle, but when price is consolidating at the top range and RSI consolidating in the middle band, it indicates energy getting renewed for a big move; usually to the direction of the current trend. As for the negative divergence that is staring at our faces; I think, when 20 EMA got tested twice, it is already played out. If it not the case, a quick test to the 50 EMA might be possible. Even then, as long as 50 EMA is not broken, I would take that as a continued consolidation and a bias to break to another high.
4. MACD: MACD histogram has fallen to the negative side over this weekend. The negative cross while within a ranging price action also indicates the energy buildup is happening. If this continues for a few more days then a major upward move will not be very surprising with the MACD positive crossover.
5. ADX/DI: ADX is showing strength is building. Positive DI is still over 25 but trailing down a bit. If Price consolidates longer, we might see DI plus getting pulled back up when price starts to move. This time might be a bigger move than the early March move because ADX is trending up this time around.
If the price does not have a major breakdown in the next couple of days, BTC will be poised to make a huge upward move. Sideways for a couple of more days is good news. I would love some nasty down wicks to catch my buy order fills. Otherwise as long as BTC is not closing below Daily 20 EMA, I will look for another higher high in the next week or so. Also keeping an eye on NASDAQ and interest rates charts. That will also play a role in BTC breakout to the sky or rolling over into the abyss...
1. Moving Averages: On the daily timeframe price is riding the 10 EMA. There were a couple of test to the 20 EMA and found strong support. Each day moving averages are gaining space, which shows the consolidation is gaining momentum.
2. Bollinger band: The bands are narrowing and angled upwards. If the consolidation stays in the current range for a few more days, the bands will start to narrow and flatten out, making a similar setup as the first week of March.
3. RSI: Price action and RSI are making a triangle and almost at the end point. Price can keep doing the same even after the triangle end, making a larger triangle, but when price is consolidating at the top range and RSI consolidating in the middle band, it indicates energy getting renewed for a big move; usually to the direction of the current trend. As for the negative divergence that is staring at our faces; I think, when 20 EMA got tested twice, it is already played out. If it not the case, a quick test to the 50 EMA might be possible. Even then, as long as 50 EMA is not broken, I would take that as a continued consolidation and a bias to break to another high.
4. MACD: MACD histogram has fallen to the negative side over this weekend. The negative cross while within a ranging price action also indicates the energy buildup is happening. If this continues for a few more days then a major upward move will not be very surprising with the MACD positive crossover.
5. ADX/DI: ADX is showing strength is building. Positive DI is still over 25 but trailing down a bit. If Price consolidates longer, we might see DI plus getting pulled back up when price starts to move. This time might be a bigger move than the early March move because ADX is trending up this time around.
If the price does not have a major breakdown in the next couple of days, BTC will be poised to make a huge upward move. Sideways for a couple of more days is good news. I would love some nasty down wicks to catch my buy order fills. Otherwise as long as BTC is not closing below Daily 20 EMA, I will look for another higher high in the next week or so. Also keeping an eye on NASDAQ and interest rates charts. That will also play a role in BTC breakout to the sky or rolling over into the abyss...
