2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Bears did it today and bulls will probably wait for 54000/55000 to start buying again. Should not go above 59000 before 54000/55000.
From yesterday:
comment: Promise kept. I also wrote that 62000 is my line in the sand for the bears. We are now in a decent bear channel with two pushes down. I do think that we grind this down much lower but there is also the potential of a break below that channel. In any case, market should not go above 59000 again, or the bear case would probably be over and we are back to neutral.
current market cycle: bear trend until bulls can break above 59000 again.
key levels: 55000 - 59000
bull case: Bulls gave up after not being able to go above 60000 today and I think it was the last of anything above 60000 we have see for some time. I don’t have anything for the bulls here. We will likely see more stepping aside by them until we hit 55000 again. If they somehow print above 59000 and break above the bear channel, I am obviously wrong.
Invalidation is below 59000.
bear case: Level was given, level was broken, hope you took the trade. Bears are in full control. They were probably in control since a week ago at 61500 because market could not close above the daily 20ema once since. But you never know the exact moment. Most likely we will see a stronger move down to 54000/55000 where I expect bulls to try bottom it. Bitcoin could not close a daily bar below 54000 since 2024-02-25. And that is the only target for the bears over the next days. They need to close the bull gap to 53000 with a daily bar. Measured move from today’s selling would give us a bit below 54000 and that is my plan for the next days. Will add to shorts on pullbacks.
Invalidation is above 59000.
short term: full bear mode until we reach 40000 or break above 59000
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: Short since 59450.
trade of the day: The complete move up from bar 50 to 67 was weak. Every big bull bar was followed by a decent bear bar and bears finally gave up right under 60000. The 3 consecutive bear bars 67, 68 and 69 where the first 3 consecutive bear bars for around 60 bars. You could have shorted below bar 68 or latest below bar 70.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Bears did it today and bulls will probably wait for 54000/55000 to start buying again. Should not go above 59000 before 54000/55000.
From yesterday:
One side will give up tomorrow. Promise.
comment: Promise kept. I also wrote that 62000 is my line in the sand for the bears. We are now in a decent bear channel with two pushes down. I do think that we grind this down much lower but there is also the potential of a break below that channel. In any case, market should not go above 59000 again, or the bear case would probably be over and we are back to neutral.
current market cycle: bear trend until bulls can break above 59000 again.
key levels: 55000 - 59000
bull case: Bulls gave up after not being able to go above 60000 today and I think it was the last of anything above 60000 we have see for some time. I don’t have anything for the bulls here. We will likely see more stepping aside by them until we hit 55000 again. If they somehow print above 59000 and break above the bear channel, I am obviously wrong.
Invalidation is below 59000.
bear case: Level was given, level was broken, hope you took the trade. Bears are in full control. They were probably in control since a week ago at 61500 because market could not close above the daily 20ema once since. But you never know the exact moment. Most likely we will see a stronger move down to 54000/55000 where I expect bulls to try bottom it. Bitcoin could not close a daily bar below 54000 since 2024-02-25. And that is the only target for the bears over the next days. They need to close the bull gap to 53000 with a daily bar. Measured move from today’s selling would give us a bit below 54000 and that is my plan for the next days. Will add to shorts on pullbacks.
Invalidation is above 59000.
short term: full bear mode until we reach 40000 or break above 59000
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: Short since 59450.
trade of the day: The complete move up from bar 50 to 67 was weak. Every big bull bar was followed by a decent bear bar and bears finally gave up right under 60000. The 3 consecutive bear bars 67, 68 and 69 where the first 3 consecutive bear bars for around 60 bars. You could have shorted below bar 68 or latest below bar 70.
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