From the current COT positioning of commercials (23% net short) a significant drop till 40 usd seems to be quite likely, but we should be aware that this positioning is based on news that Irak, Iran Russia... are not willing to accept Algier consens on production freeze/cut. A sudden change may surprise to the upside. Keep also in mind that Saudi Aramco IPO will only be successful for SA with a significantly higher crude price. A 10% IPO of a 2 trillion company is 200 bil... This is a multiple of the yearly crude income of SA. With SA producing crude at the upper limit a cut back to the pre oil decay production level will increase the price significantly and for SA this will be a bigger gain than trying to keep the current market share...