The correction overnight created a channel (screenshot below) which needs to breakdown for more confidence in this idea. We could still get to 2510-20 area before that happens.
The hourly structure now looks like a bearflag, which should reach a target of around 2250. Some may also see a weak head and shoulders formation. Either way, I think we'll sell off with a little zig and zag here and there into Friday's close.
Considering the price action overnight, I do expect we'll retest and possibly break the lows from March 22 -most likely next week.
Good Luck!
The hourly structure now looks like a bearflag, which should reach a target of around 2250. Some may also see a weak head and shoulders formation. Either way, I think we'll sell off with a little zig and zag here and there into Friday's close.
Considering the price action overnight, I do expect we'll retest and possibly break the lows from March 22 -most likely next week.
Good Luck!
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channel starting to break before the jobs numbers. Be careful of whipsaw movements
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Jobless claims - 6.6 million claims vs. 3.1 expected.
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channel broke down after a small retest/whipsaw move
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Economists surveyed by Dow Jones estimated 3.1 million, a week after 3.3 million filings in the first wave of what has been a record-shattering swelling of the jobless ranks. The previous week’s total was revised higher by 24,000.
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Head and shoulders a little clearer. I expect the Blue line (neckline) will be tested this morning - about 2445-50, maybe higher.
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much higher open than expected, it could have been a bear trap. lower low would confirm the downtrend.
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Hourly bull divergence, this may be playing out today
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Last updated idea looks like it's playing out. THIS is why it's so hard to trade news. The hourly bull divergence seems to be the key here, also we didn't get high enough of a retrace - even less that .382. That was suspicious
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Previous channel from this morning has contained the bulls, If we get over it, I'm expecting 2550+ and then failure
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waiting for this. I may long over the channel, or just wait to short. The less trades, the less I make mistakes :)
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This channel has been important to the price - it's possible we see something like this into tomorrow as an alternative.
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And then it could be a triangle as well - best to wait and see which way it breaks
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trendline clearer on SPY
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Trendline may hold here, wait for a nice green candle - also a SPY bounce to .618 would seem logical since that's the gap. Maybe we rally the rest of the day and then tomorrow/overnight - sell it
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Long wicks indicate buyers in this area, we'll see if it can hold
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Looking good right now
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2500 held, took a half position long
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As long as futures are inside or above this channel, it's bullish
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As of now we are below the channel and haven't recovered it. I thought for sure we would be going higher than this, but It's possible that this is only wave 4 and the 5th wave down is to come.
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Possible double correction with a double top at the .382 fib. I'm not saying "it is this" I'm saying - it's possible. Not even sure if the labeling is correct as my EW is still intermediate level at best. Either way, recovering the channel is imperative for the bulls to continue up.
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right now, I see two possibilities today - we reverse from the red channel line and make a deeper retrace to 2555 area - or - we break below the red channel line, retest it and fail.
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Could have been a stop run, still waiting.
