$SPX $SPY 2009+ Trend Channel

22 feb.

SPX SPY Breach of the trend channel that has been in place since 2009. Now we have breached the channel before, the longest of which was between January of 2021 to May of 2022. We all know how 2023 was.

Aside from that mania, we broke and held above it for about 2 weeks in January of 2018 before a sharp correction in February. It would take a full year to be back to even, had you purchased during that period. That channel breach peak to the further drawdown later that year would have realized a -16% drawdown in SSPX.

Between May of 2014 and May of 2015, the market rode the uppermost of the same channel before a few months later where the market went on to a -10% correction. Had you purchased the top of that channel, it would take 2 full years to get back to even, realizing a -14% drawdown in the process.

So lets get back to the mania of January 2021 to May of 2022. Peak to trough of this mania was -25%, and those who bought the breach of the channel would have to wait 2 years and see huge account gains and losses throughout the process, all to be even again and finally start making money last year into this year, of course even longer had that money been put into TBills during that period instead.