fra978

GOLD (XAUUSD) - Big Bearish GARTELY

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fra978 Uppdaterad   
OANDA:XAUUSD   Guld / USA-dollar
What could be a Wave C inside a big bearish Gartely is almost done.
If the count is right, we should see a new low around 1600 and maybe lower.
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well, the entry at 1876 is working but the leg formed doesnt looks to me as a motive wave (impulsive 1,2,3,4,5 wave) so i wondering for others possibile counts in wich we might reach 1920 area before the real move down. lets see what happens.
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Wrell, above 1866 we have to consider this possibility, with another next leg up to 1920 - 1950 area
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would be possibile and becoming realistic af
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Actually im looking for close my shorts at BE of 76 if the 72 area will not holds. A break of 78 might confirm the count here above.
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Ok, for the moment the area of invalidation is not broken, so we are holding shorts and this would be the outcome of the beginning (wave 1 of 5) for the validation of this main idea published here
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the actual count that we are following (there are at least another three possibile but this is the preferred atm)
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ok, these are the more probable 2 valid counts atm, red and blue paths. The following of the red might be a confirmation of the main idea published here.
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well...
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Well, the big scale count into the idea (the red path) might be wrong, cause this move down may be an A wave and this might be the path of the inner wave 3 of that ewave A
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Well, actually this might be two different things (that impact on the major counts):
a motive 12345 wave:
in wich we are into the last leg (wave 5) before the big ratrace up (that also might be already done at 1767).

Or a double series of 3 (333)
inside a D or E waves into the big triangle of the big structure.

Honestly i start to smell something of this second ipothesis.
Lets see what happens with the last NFP of the year.
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Maybe we are not in 5 waves down but in a three drive?
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next short zone would be the red area
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well, atm this is my first count in wich we have completed 5 waves down inside a C down to a new lower low below 1680
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We might also had completed the first 5 waves down (inside an A?) and going for a deep retrace up (like 820 - 30)
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Well, the above post has worked well, now, regarding the EW count, we might stay inside a big wave C down like this, with those targets,
but we need to see how it will delevelopes
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