Target Reached! USDCHF ReviewPrice reversed beautifully from the sell entry level we forecasted at 0.8988 and has reached the take profit target of 0.8908. The important lesson here is to place your take profit before a key level (vs right at the key level). As you can see in this video, price touched the TP level and took off in the other direction - just missing this crucial bit of information would have been potentially costly.
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Chf
How do you trade with Correlation?How do you trade with Correlation?
You can trade on forex pair correlations by identifying which currency pairs have a positive or negative correlation to each other. I have identified above the 3 main correlation pairs which correlate best with each other. In the conventional sense, you would open two of the same positions if the correlation was positive, or two opposing positions if the correlation was negative, for example when OIL increases in value, the Canadian Dollar tends to increase in value. This is because Canada is among the top 5 oil producing and exporting countries making them directly correlate.
CHF & GOLD Correlation
Both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and physical gold have acted as reserve 'currencies' thereby establishing a relationship between the gold price and Swiss Franc . Despite some differences, the Swiss Franc and the gold price are correlated and the similarities shared by the two can be clearly identified. This the Swiss National Bank has a huge amount of Gold Reserves and is one of the largest possessors of gold reserves worldwide. This also gives the Swiss Franc direct correlation with gold as the government passed a legislation that the Swiss Franc must be backed by gold .
Why is it important
Correlation is important when trading your strategy as you can manipulate the market and gain more confluences to confirm your entries. For example if you are focusing on the Canadian Dollar and can see a bullish trend and an entry point, OIL must also be bullish due to the correlation and you can confirm your analogy as you have analysed 2 correlating pairs which are both bullish .
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What is a Range-Bound Market?
A range-bound market is one in which price bounces between a specific high price and a low price.
The high price acts as a major resistance level in which price can’t seem to breakthrough.
Likewise, the low price acts as a major support level in which price can’t seem to break as well.
The market movement could be classified as horizontal, ranging , or sideways.
A range-bound market is the opposite of a trending market.
In a range-bound market, there is no clear direction.
How to trade Range-Bound Market?
1- Trading Major Support and Resistance:
Traders capitalize on range-bound trading by repeatedly buying at the major support level and selling at the major resistance level until the security breaks out from a price channel.
The idea is that the price is more likely to rebound from these levels than break through them, which puts the risk-to-reward ratio in their favor, although it's important to always watch for a potential breakout .
Technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), can be used to confirm overbought and oversold conditions when price oscillates within a trading range.
For example , a trader could enter a long position when the price is trading at major support and the RSI gives an oversold reading below 30. Alternatively, the trader may decide to open a short position when the RSI moves into overbought territory above 70.
Most traders place stop-loss points just below the major support level and above the major resistance level to mitigate the risk of heavy losses from a high volume breakout.
2- Trading Breakouts:
Traders can enter in the direction of a breakout from a trading range. To confirm the move is valid, traders should use other indicators, such as volume and price action .
For instance, there should be a significant increase in volume on the initial breakout , as well as several closes outside the trading range. Instead of chasing the price, traders may want to wait for a retracement before entering a trade.
For example , a buy limit order could be placed just above the top of the trading range, which now acts as a support level.
A stop-loss order could sit at the opposite side of the trading range to protect against a failed breakout.
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USDCHF flash crashThe Swiss franc swooned almost 1 percent at the start of Asian trade Monday as thin liquidity caused by a Japan holiday led to a mini recurrence of the “flash crash” that roiled FX markets early last month.
The Swissie slid from 1.0004 per dollar around 7 a.m. in Tokyo to as weak as 1.0096, the lowest since November, within a matter of minutes before almost as suddenly reversing the move to trade 0.2% stronger on the day. The round trip created a trading range for Monday of almost 110 pips, about double this year’s daily average of 56.
The move was a smaller cousin of the whiplash that saw the yen jump almost 8 percent against the Australian dollar early on Jan. 3, when Japanese markets were nearing the end of a week-long New Year holiday break.
“Lack of liquidity is a common factor in these events,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “Traders and strategists now have Japan holiday calendars printed in a big font at their desk!"
Catril said the move may have been initially triggered by a data entry error that set off a cascade of computer trades based on pre-entered algorithms.
One client who had a short position on USD/CHF had earlier entered instructions to buy back the currency pair if it rose and the transaction was triggered at 1.0070, according to a sales trader who asked not to be identified. When the trader called the client to inform them the level had already dropped back to 1.0020.
“It’s like a mini flash crash,” said Eleanor Creagh, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Sydney. “It’s a combination of low liquidity and Japan on public holiday that’s driven the move.”
AUDCHF - 1Has you can see the price will go bearish to our targets. (God knows)
Good luck and take care.
Important
The analysis and ideas published here, not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell, is merely an analysis and a vision based on the study of the history of price movement and behavior which may not necessarily be the reason for the success of the analysis and the model and its repetition and thus the probability of success is quite equal to the probability of failure .
So, please make your decision based on your pure vision.
Publishing is for the purpose of exchanging, correcting and comparing ideas.
in case the market moves with the direction of the analysis and achieve the first objective, there are options for you:
First: close the deal and receive the profits.
Second: Close the half of the contracts and put the stop loss on entry.
Third, the stop loss is moved to the point of entry and waiting for the remaining targets to be achieved.
To protect capital and succeed in managing transactions and thus successful trading should not exceed the maximum potential loss in each transaction for the same currency or commodity and in the same direction (2%) of the value of the portfolio.
Good luck and good profit.
If you have any opinions or thoughts about the analysis we will be happy when you share it with us.
USDCHF Trading Plan: Decision Zone
USDCHF is currently trading in a wide trading range between two significant structure levels.
The breakout will determine the market future direction.
Our plan is to wait for a candle close above/below the structure level,
then we can take action accordingly.
Target levels:
Resistance - 0.99
Support - 0.96
AUDCHF - EDUCATION - 29. JUNE. 2019Welcome to DACapitalTrading, We provide any kind of Technical and Fundamental Analysis
for Forex and Crypto-Currency Markets every day!
-
1 HOUR
Sideways moving market with a lot of pullbacks.
4 HOUR
Bullish market found its resistance probably.
DAILY
Very bearish market in a small correction now, great short entries for sure!
OVERALL
I think we will see a bullish market open and price movement above previous
H4 Highs and resistance area for a last pin to the upside before heading back
down into our average price movement!
Good luck
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Have a great week everyone!
ALAN
How to Top-Fish S&R ZonesHello dear Forex friends, I just had this example with Alex from our Slack group, where he had posted the following for the German TradingView:
So he clearly bet on the previous S&R zone on the Daily at 110 psychological and being overextended on the Hourly.
The problem was though, that our S&R range was not clear, and esp. the 110,5 was even stronger as resistance:
So, did we see any patterns or information regarding trend-reversal , other than the S&R zone?
=> Nope, not at all. We only saw a very healthy Bull Flag on the Hourly when we zoomed in, which saw a very nice continuation breakout. Only with the arrival at the key resistance at 110,5, we finally saw a reaction from the bears, smashing down the price.
Conclusion: Either a) we would've had to to put our stop loss way above the top-fishing entry, basically above 110,5, which made no sense from a R:R perspective. Or b) we would've had to play with a very narrow stop-loss, basically like Alex did at 110, which was good. And/or c), wait for the 110,5 psychological for (re-) entry. => Because eventually we where right on the direction . Either way we should be in profit now or exited with a small loss.
Now what?
As we have arrived at the important previous S&R zone again at 109,5, a reaction from the bulls would be expected here up to 110 or little bit lower.
I hope you had some value, and if you want to be able to read the chart like this, and esp. set up a trading plan with statistics, let me know! ;) I wish you a great trading.
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