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AIRBNB INCAA

AIRBNB INC

2,430.00MXND
−41.00−1.66%
At close at May 23, 18:06 GMT
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ABNB trade ideas

Mid life crisis @ $ABNB ; PT < $80- Valuation doesn't make sense on $ABNB. - Market is too generous on $ABNB. - NASDAQ:BKNG is defacto king when it comes to travel and booking. Market also reflects that by awarding NASDAQ:BKNG a whooping 180 billion market cap. - NASDAQ:EXPE valuation is too cheap to ignore and revenue numbers are comparable to NASDAQ:ABNB and has market cap of 20 billion. - Even if we give browny points for NASDAQ:ABNB it doesn't make sense to justify $80 billion market cap. NASDAQ:ABNB should at max be 40-45 Billion dollar company generously speaking. - NASDAQ:ABNB fair value is < $80 bucks ideally close to $65
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by bigbull037
ABNB close to huge breakoutABNB is poised to have a huge breakout, this massive wedge reminds me of the Tesla multi year consolidation and breakout. With the new version of ABNB we should see increased cash flows at they attempt to integrate more experiences into the platform. Need a chef for a luxury weekend? They will also have experiences for locals to try to make it a one in all app for many things. My fib extension is at 225. Remember this is a monthly chart and will take some time.
NLong
by Apollo_21mil
ABNB Bullish Setup Targeting $153 After Confirming Support AboveAirbnb (ABNB) is showing bullish continuation after reclaiming the $130 zone, holding above the middle Bollinger Band. MACD confirms a positive crossover, and increasing volume supports a potential move toward the $153 resistance. Trade Setup: • Entry Zone: $135 - $137 • First Target: $145 • Second Target: $153 • Stop Loss: Below $129 Technical Analysis Highlights: • Price holding above Bollinger Band midpoint. • MACD positive crossover with growing momentum. • Volume showing healthy interest on the recent move. Recommendation: Consider buying above $135 with targets at $145 and $153, managing risk if the price breaks below $129.
NLong
by Muhannadchart
Airbnb: Upward pressureAirbnb's stock has once again come under noticeable upward pressure. However, we primarily classify these increases as a countermovement as part of the bearish wave 3 in turquoise – and accordingly expect a downward reversal soon. During wave 3, the price should finally fall below the support level at $108.60, and the subsequent wave 4 should also remain below this mark, so that the subsequent wave 5 can ultimately complete the entire turquoise downward impulse and the overarching corrective movement of the beige wave II.
N
by MarketIntel
Airbnb | ABNB Airbnb is the leader in Alternative Accommodations and experiences. I believe their community of individual hosts and strong brand differentiates them from travel peers. The emerging trend of long-term stays would boost Airbnb’s profit margins and expand the entire travel accommodation market size Airbnb estimates its current total addressable market to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion in short term stays, $ 210 billion in long term stays, and $ 1.4 trillion in experiences. Coupled with a notably underpenetrated market size, the global travel market is growing at an above GDP rate. Airbnb’s current market penetration represents less than 2% of the share. As such, there is a huge runway for Airbnb’s growth over the next decade. In terms of competition, most Online Travel Agencies (OTA) provide traditional hotel accommodation (Marriott, Hilton, Accor, Wyndham, and InterContinental, for example). These OTAs are not the real competitors for Airbnb. Instead, Booking.com (BKNG) is expanding its traditional hotel business into the alternative accommodation industry. Expedia (EXPE) entered the alternative accommodation market via the acquisition of VRBO in December 2015. However, Airbnb has the first-mover advantage with a very strong brand. I believe Airbnb’s technology and supplies are superior to their peers, and it is hard for Expedia and Booking.com to compete against Airbnb in the alternative accommodations space. One of the main expenses for Online Travel Agencies is sales and marketing. They have to spend billions of dollars on Google, Facebook, and other social media platforms to attract traffic. The table below shows the sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of sales. Both Booking.com and Expedia spend almost half of their sales on sales and marketing. According to Airbnb’s disclosure, 80% of their website traffic comes from direct and organic search. In contrast, Booking.com and Expedia only have 60% direct traffic. In other words, Airbnb has the highest brand awareness among these travelers. With a high ratio of direct traffic and organic search, Airbnb spends much less than its peers. In Q1 FY23’s earning call, Airbnb indicated their sales and marketing expense as percentage of sales would remain the same in FY23. In late 2019, Airbnb's costs were rising, and growth was slowing. They spent a huge amount of money on performance marketing, which was basically selling their products as a commodity. Their product was looking less different from their competitors. When the COVID occurred, they lost 80% of sales in eight weeks, and they shut down all marketing spending. Interestingly, when the travel market rebounded, Airbnb's business came back to almost the same level as before, with much less marketing expenses. Currently, they spend much less on performance marketing, and most of their expenses are focused on their products/services. They have had 600,000 articles about Airbnb. These efforts have put Airbnb in a much better shape today. 90% of Airbnb's hosts are individuals. Airbnb can capitalize on the personal experience provided by these unique individual hosts, as opposed to a standard hotel service. Customers can find unique properties, differentiated amenities, as well as local insights from these individual hosts. Airbnb is putting in a lot of effort into the experience market. In Q4 FY22's earnings call, Airbnb expressed that they were beginning to ramp up their Airbnb Experience business and expect to launch more products/services over the coming years. In my opinion, Airbnb Experience may not bring notable direct sales to Airbnb, but it would enhance the stickiness and loyalty of Airbnb's customers. Airbnb Experience would make the Airbnb platform unique and boost their sales indirectly. Furthermore, Airbnb Experience could become more relevant with AI technology. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb disclosed that they are building AI into their products. Airbnb is working with OpenAI ChatGPT, and Airbnb will embed ChatGPT into their app. The AI powered product will be launched next year. Leveraging AI technology, Airbnb can make their Airbnb Experience and accommodation recommendations more relevant to any consumer. To put it another way, Airbnb would know your preferences for travel destinations and accommodations before you start searching for anything. Long-term Stay: As disclosed, 20% of Airbnb's gross bookings are long-term stays currently. Long-term stays are the fastest-growing segment in terms of trip length. The pandemic also accelerated some inevitable growth for long-term stays. Long-term stays mean higher margins for both hosts and Airbnb. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb indicated that long-term stays would be one of the biggest growth areas over the next five years. Airbnb made over a dozen upgrades to long-term stays based on affordability, and they also have new discounting tools for hosts on weekly and monthly stays. Airbnb expects more hosts to exclusively list long-term stays with Airbnb. In addition, 62% of Airbnb's guests are under 34 years old, and Airbnb is focusing on the next generation of travelers. These young customers are more likely to use Airbnb as the platform for long-term stays. The key thing to remember is that more long-term stays mean higher margins for Airbnb. Airbnb indicated that, in the current macroeconomic environment, consumers are looking for affordable ways to travel on Airbnb. Airbnb is adding more affordable accommodations to their platform. The average price of Airbnb rooms is only $67 per night. Before the pandemic, 80% of Airbnb's sales were coming from either cross-border or urban accommodations. The cross-border business would contribute more sales to Airbnb than other types of travel. The cross-border traveling could be very weak if high inflation persists. Despite this, the global travel market had been growing fast in the past, and I expect the growth will continue in the future. We are using a two-stage DCF model to estimate Airbnb’s fair value. In the model, we assume 20% of normalized sales growth rate, which we believe is quite conservative. We assume they can expand their operating margin by 30bps annually and will reach 25.5% in FY32.Their free cash flow conversion was quite healthy in the past, and we assume they will deliver 35.8% in FY32. In addition, we use 10% of WACC, and 15% of nonGAAP tax rate in the model. The present value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) over the next 10 years is estimated to be $32 billion, and the present value of terminal value is $88 billion. As such, the total enterprise value is estimated to be $120 billion. Adjusting gross debt and cash balance, the fair value of the stock price is $ 200, according to our estimate. All things considered, the huge underpenetrated market, strong brand awareness, and growing trend of long-term stays, in my opinion, will provide Airbnb with a huge runway for growth over the next decade. Their competitors are way behind them, and Airbnb would be the best player for the alternative accommodation service provider. In my view, the current stock price is significantly undervalued, and we encourage investors to buy during the weakness. at the end I always bet on Brian Chesky
NLong
by moonypto
2
$ABNB going up on hopium; Fair value $100-120- NASDAQ:ABNB gave hopium of investing in different business for next 5 years which could grow into a billion dollars. - Investors should not fall for hopium. Execution remains a challenge and money spent on that bet remains unseen and just a wild dream as of now. - EPS growth of NASDAQ:ABNB is almost flat for next 2-3 years. - Hotel industry has caught up to $ABNB. There's no USP ( unique selling point ) of $ABNB. Verbo offers exactly the same thing which NASDAQ:ABNB does. - Tons of listing have cannibalized net revenue for the host. - Short term rentals have caused havoc in the rental market for the long term tenants. Fundamentals wise: Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 EPS | 4.37 | 5.05 | 5.99 | 7.37 EPS growth % | 9.89% | 15.65% | 18.68% | 22.94% For a company growing eps mid to high teens deserves a fair forward multiple of 20. Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock price w p/e 20 | $87 | $101 | $119 | $147 However, many investors would be okay paying 25 times for a company with strong brand so. Stock price w p/e 25 | $109 | $126 | $149 | $184 Bull Case: Stock price w p/e 30 | $131 | $151 | $179 | $221 Recommendation: Staying on the sidelines and waiting for the stock to disappoint and buy it close to instrinsic value represented by fundamentals
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by bigbull037
$ABNB sliding moat; slumpy housing market + recession incoming- NASDAQ:ABNB has a sliding moat problem - slumpy housing market + recession incoming should lead to compressed multiple - NASDAQ:ABNB used to be wall street poster child and commanded premium multiple but that moat is no longer here. - NASDAQ:BKNG is the OG of travel booking. - NASDAQ:ABNB is useful only when you are travelling in a big group where booking rooms in a hotel becomes expensive. - Nothing unique about NASDAQ:ABNB , Verbo offers same thing and many hotel aggregator has started showing individual properties owned by owner. - Regulation in cities in favour of long term tenants is welcomed as it will help in easing inflation for rental units which is always sticky. - Technicals looks like a wedge which should break to the downside. Ideally, NASDAQ:ABNB should trade below $85 to look compelling investment. - Otherwise avoid this stock
NShort
by bigbull037
Airbnb Weekly Update (03/02/2025) - Inverse Head and ShouldersThe chart for Airbnb (ABNB) on the weekly timeframe suggests a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is typically a bullish reversal signal. Inverse Head and Shoulders Formation: The chart clearly outlines a left shoulder, head, and right shoulder pattern. This structure often signals a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. The neckline (blue resistance line) has been tested multiple times, indicating its significance. A confirmed breakout above this level could lead to further upside momentum. Volume Analysis: Volume spikes during the formation of the right shoulder suggest increasing interest from buyers. If volume increases during a breakout above the neckline, it would confirm the bullish bias. RSI Momentum: The RSI is currently around neutral levels (50.78), suggesting there’s room for upward movement before hitting overbought conditions. This supports the potential for further gains if momentum builds. Ichimoku Cloud Support: The price appears to be consolidating above the Ichimoku cloud, which often acts as dynamic support in an uptrend. Upside Target: If the breakout occurs, the measured move target can be calculated by adding the height of the head to the breakout point. This would project a potential target near $175–$180.
NLong
by Trading_Consults
Research: Could Price Levels Be Predefined?Basis: RESEARCH Analyzing directional support and resistance through Fibonacci channels provides a systematic approach to understanding historical price movements and their impact on current market trends. Fibonacci ratios have long been essential in technical analysis, helping traders identify pivotal price levels where momentum shifts frequently occur. This research focuses on applying Fibonacci channels to ABNB, plotting major swing highs and lows to establish price zones based on key ratios (0.236, 0.382, etc.). By aligning past market behavior with these channels, we pinpoint critical support and resistance levels, assessing whether the current price aligns with historically relevant zones. The presence of a symmetrical triangle pattern underscores significant turning points where price action has consistently reacted. Meanwhile, integrating Fibonacci channels further illustrates how structured price movements adhere to these predefined levels, reinforcing their reliability. This methodology not only contextualizes current trends but also enhances forecasting accuracy.
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by fract
3
AIRBNB’S Q4 2024—$ABNB SOARS WITH RECORD GROWTHAIRBNB’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:ABNB SOARS WITH RECORD GROWTH (1/9) Good morning, Tradingview Fam! Airbnb’s Q4 2024 earnings dropped—$2.5B revenue, up 12% YoY, topping $2.42B estimates 📈🔥. Nights booked hit 111M, and a $14% stock surge shows the market’s love. Let’s unpack NASDAQ:ABNB ’s big win! 🚀 (2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS • Q4 Revenue: $2.5B, +12% YoY ($2.2B Q4 ‘23) 💥 • Net Income: $461M vs. -$349M loss last year • EPS: $0.73, beats $0.61 est. 📊 • Adj. EBITDA: $765M, +4% YoY, 30.8% margin • GBV: $17.6B, +13% YoY Travel demand’s fueling the fire! (3/9) – KEY HIGHLIGHTS • Stock Surge: +14% post-earnings (Feb 14) 🌍 • Buybacks: $838M in Q4, $3.4B for 2024 🚗 • New Ventures: $200-250M investment in travel services for May ‘25 ✅ NASDAQ:ABNB ’s betting big on growth beyond stays! (4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN • Market Cap: ~$102B, Stock: $161.2 🌟 • Trailing P/E: 48.87 vs. BKNG (23), EXPE (15) • Outperforms: 12% revenue growth beats BKNG (6%), EXPE (2%) Premium valuation, but $4.5B free cash flow says it’s earned! (5/9) – RISKS TO WATCH • Economy: Retail sales dip hints travel cuts 📉 • Regs: NYC bans, Barcelona threats loom 🏛️ • Competition: BKNG, EXPE, hotels fight back ⚔️ • Costs: $200-250M spend may squeeze Q1 margins ⚠️ (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Growth: 12% revenue, $461M profit shines 🌟 • Cash: SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B net, $4.5B FCF powers buybacks 🔍 • Tech: 535+ upgrades boost scale 🚦 NASDAQ:ABNB ’s a travel titan with muscle! (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: High P/E (48.87), Q1 margin dip 💸 • Opportunities: New services ( SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B + potential), LatAm/Asia boom 🌍 Can NASDAQ:ABNB turn expansion into gold? (8/9) – NASDAQ:ABNB ’s Q4 rocks—where’s it headed? 1️⃣ Bullish—Growth keeps climbing. 2️⃣ Neutral—Solid, but risks hover. 3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation caps it. Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY Airbnb’s Q4 dazzles—$2.5B revenue, stock soaring, new bets in play 🌍. Premium P/E vs. peers, but growth screams value. Risks lurk—regs, economy. Gem or peak?
NLong
by DCAChampion
3
ABNB Back On My RadarA strong reaction to ABNB earnings put this ticker back on the map for me. Now lets see how it plays out. Short term bullish momentum: We could see this week, (especially if the NASDAQ and S&P break through to ATHs), this continue up toward 169 before digesting some. If it does this, the retest could be at 161-163, the top of the breakout candle body or wick, or a bit further to the top of the gap at 157. Gap up to go up? Possibly. Bullish after retest: If this retests just to the 155-157 area, I would deem this as a sign of strength, honoring the gap up without filling it. Deeper pullback: A breakdown to 148 wouldn't invalidate this as a long position, but I'd want to see it hold up at that level. Otherwise it's back off my list. As a short term rental owner, the fees have been forever climbing for me and my guests. So if I could get a good chunk back from a couple of plays on this name, I'd feel satisfied lol!
NLong
by emanuelaelias
Incoming 50% collapse to $70 for AirBnb“Airbnb a tech company and its founder and CEO Brian Chesky isn't shy about that.” source: hotelsmag.com It’s an online letting agent! A $86 billion one at that. Feels like WeWork Déjà vu all all over again. A landlord with a cool name and a website now becomes a tech company. AirBnb was always on my list for accommodation searches when travelling. Today a hotel is almost always my first choice, even if that is for a stay of up to 10 days. What changed? 1) Affordability. I draw the line when the cost of a mediocre “key-code” to enter AirBnb accommodation matches that of a 4 or 5 star hotel. I don’t know what hosts are thinking. One possibility is servicing overstretched mortgage costs. 2) Gentrification. Affordable housing has been swallowed up by landlords as they exchange from longterm to short term holiday lets in the pursuit of more money. The landlords can’t be blamed when interest rates have been so low, but the effect on city centres is evident. One city centre I visited a few months ago, the whole townhouse was AirBnb’d divided into several units. Depressing. I think we’re now on the verge of a swell of those Landlords selling up as it becomes clearer with each month there are easier ways to make money whilst not holding onto an overpriced asset. If I’m correct, the selling pressure will ultimately impact the business model, charging overpricd fees. Speaking of fees.. 3) Cleaning fees. Don’t get me started. Imagine checking out of a hotel “And your cleaning fee...” The technical analysis On the above weekly chart: 1) Price action and RSI support breakouts have printed. 2) Broken market structure. This is a perfect technical example of broken market structure confirming resistance from the last higher low. A trend reversal is now confirmed. 3) The Bear flag has confirmed. Past support confirms as strong rejection. Price action is forecast to strike $70 Is it possible price action continues to print upwards and onwards? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww
NShort
by without_worries
20