If the US unemployment rate closes above 4.2%..If the US unemployment rate closes above 4.2%..
Things could get real ugly, real fast.
See 2008 crisis.
UNRATE trade ideas
Massive US Unemployment Move Inbound
On the FRED:UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession.
Currently, FRED:UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever since. Historically, this means that we can expect an aggressive move in unemployment in the following months.
2025 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE above 5.2% by Late MARCH 2025 CYCLES project a swift move up based on the pattern . DOGE and the fact a min of 15 to 25 % of federal workers have stated they will Resign and With D.O.G.E. to implement and referring the closing down part and All of several depts . should be the Cause .as well as over 890 k jobs loss in revisions .
Federal Reserve is Behind the Curve, Recession is 100% CONFIRMEDHello everyone,
The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession. Jerome Powell will find himself in a position to cut rates very fast due to the cracks in the job market. It is already too late we will be witnessing a huge spike in unemployment. Who knows how high this can go, back in 1929 unemployment hit 24.9%.
Welcome to the 2024 recessionOrange bars indicate recessions calculated by the NBER. Keep in mind, they waited a year to spawn in the 2008 information. Appears to have entered into the steepening phase with a MACD cross on the 2 month. Also a cross on the 21 period moving average. I believe this to be a little more accurate than the Sahm rule.
Unemployment, FED Rates, SPXLooks like market bottoms just before the Unemployment peak.
Market peaks just before fed starts reducing the rates.
At the current situation, we have fed fund rates high and also unemployment started to climb.
Will be looking at the unemployment going high and markets roll over and fed cuts rates.
if FED keeps the same rate for long, something in the economy will break and they have to reduce the rate and if it happens then it's already too late.
Looks like CD's and earning ~5% interest on cash is much better than risking for very limited upside in the market.
Thesis: slightly higher SP500, before crash due to unemployment12/9/2023
I - Issue:
Yesterday, the latest unemployment rate for the USA were released. The current rate stands at 3.7, reflecting a decrease of 0.2. The key question now is whether this is merely a test of support or a signal for a potential invalidation of the bottom structure.
R - Rule:
Since 1950, we observe numerous instances where the unemployment rate proves to be a reliable indicator for determining the macro trend of the stock markets.The formation of a bottom signals a peak for the S&P 500, and the initiation of an upward trend is generally considered the least favorable time to invest in stocks.
A - Application:
As per the latest data, the unemployment rate stands at 3.7. As evident from the charts, this marks a breached resistance that is now expected to serve as support. Additionally, there is a current rejection of the upper band of the Bull Market Support Band, but the price remains above it, indicating potential support in this range as well.
Furthermore, in accordance with the Phillips curve, there is a negative correlation between inflation and unemployment. This relationship suggests that the declining inflation, results in an rising unemployment.
C - Conclusion:
The lower unemployment rate currently appears to be a retest of the 3.7 level. It is highly likely that it will stay above this level, given the substantial support from the horizontal support and the Bull Market Support Band. Additionally, the Phillips curve provides an additional reason why unemployment may increase in the coming months. This suggests that, based on this scenario, the stock markets could be approaching a potential peak. Take this into consideration.
The Implications of the US Unemployment Rate - It Is Higher Now What is moving lately? The US unemployment rate has edged up.
We can see from past cycles that when unemployment numbers started breaking above their downtrend, crisis occurred.
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Does the US have an AI problem?This chat compares the monthly unemployment rate and the job openings since 2022. Unemployment has been rising since end of 2023, basically beginning of AI, and available jobs have been down since 2022, all while the market is reaching new highs. It seems that AI brings in more revenue and reduces cost for companies. I wonder if they’ll be any regulations.
Fraud Update - Mainstream NewsLast week, on the television show "Good Morning America", they ran a segment about "the economy".
During this segment, the Disney-owned (short Disney) "news outlet", reported the unemployment rate is 3.7%.
...
......
............ the unemployment rate is currently 4%. No big deal you say? Well, I disagree. Namely because: 1. They're wrong, 2. finding out the unrate is as simple as googling "unrate".
So for some reason the supposedly professional news team at Disney-owned ABC, chose to
incorrectly report a key datapoint.
Lol. Why the fake news, ABC?
UNEMPLOYMENT % correlation with bull/bear marketsI saw a Alessio video some years ago about this correlation :
low and falling unemployment rates as an indicator of incoming crash.
Now unemployment rates are climbing from historic lows, as this is bad for the unemployed individual, it is an indicator of better times coming for soc eco
Economic Overview | The "Yellowstone Bubble"On Thursday, May 16th, I was sipping coffee and watching The Today Show , when a guest appeared on the program to talk about how much money YOU are supposedly making in your 401(k). Oddly enough the commentator - who was identified as the "chief business correspondent for CNN" - then reminded viewers that "you really should only look at your 401(k) once or twice a year"....
What?....WHAT?
My first thought: we don't need to be lectured on how often we should be checking on our retirement funds.
But this got me thinking, WHY do these "professional money managers" insist that working people not pay attention to their money??
I am speculating here, but I assume it is because retirement fund managers (large investment institutions) are also in the business of making money and therefore TAKING PROFIT.
Is there any evidence for this?... Well, yes:
Now factor in all of the nonsense that is constantly pumped by television commentators, meme stock pumpers, crypto fantasies, immature CEOs, and more recently - celebrities and professional athletes.
Have you ever stopped to think about the fact that there is a television commercial for $QQQ... Things have become so obscene that money managers are paying for airtime to deceptively lure regular people into buying their securities, so they can take profits, after already receiving bailouts. You've seen it, there are several versions of the same commercial and the narrative goes something like "I'm investing in QQQ for the future".
The Unemployment Rate has bottomed - there is no more growth to be had and even if we were to see unemployment trend below 3%, we can go back to the early 1950s and 1960s to see that financial markets really DON'T return much more below 3% unemployment; again this is because there is no more growth below 3% and therefore marginally less return.
Credit card delinquency is rising rapidly, thanks to inflation from Covid helicopter money.
And Household Debt-to-GDP has also bottomed. This one is particularly concerning because as we just explained, there is no more growth to be achieved from here (UNRATE). So, ask yourself: what happens if GDP falls ? Answer: household debt as a proportion of GDP rises by at leas that amount (it's a ratio - it has no choice). Expanding on this question, ask yourself: what happens if household debt continues to rise, amid maxed out unemployment? Answer: the already record profit-margins of investment banks increase to highly unstable levels, thereby further incentivizing profit-taking.
Anyway, I am calling this market the Yellowstone Bubble . Everyone is a rich tough-guy cattle rancher, everyone is a crypto professional, everyone thinks "Tesla is the future" (LOL), everyone is an AI expert, everyone is a pro because they scroll forums and listen to some podcast.
In a world that runs on "users" and "clicks" and web traffic, you must remain vigilant!
Take care!
