consolidation completeLT downtrend is over. Consolidation is over. Has broken out of Bullish expanding triangle.
0NHS trade ideas
NTR(Nutrien LTD) Short Term Investing 1I estimate that NTR share will reach a value of 100+- Canadian Dollar within one year (6-12 months), this is a increase of 30%+-
Stop loss is around 67.00 CAD for one share.
I see the market in general that will likely experience more of a uptrend in one year's time because of the USA interest rate hike cycle ending.
I see Nutrien performing better because of the war in Ukraine stagnating and farmers slowly returning to their crops, alongside a somewhat easing of geopolitical tensions.
The share value is very undervalued or it is at a bargain price.
Analysts are on average estimating that the share will hit above 100+ CAD, the low estimate is 100+- CAD
The company has had a bad year or so in the past, I see a potential bottom.
I have bought 100 shares at 73.70 CAD, will attempt to hold for one year or more or if target price is reached.
NTR at risk of A top if not THE top: Major Golden fib at $78.99Plotted here is the "Golden Growth" levels from the Covid bottom.
Positive earnings report has pushed price towards next Golden fib.
Based on reactions at golden fibs below, we can expect one here.
It is PROBABLE the we see a pullback from this fib.
It is POSSBILE that it will be a significant top for this.
It is PLAUSIBLE that it blows through it and keeps going.
Most LIKELY is to orbit $79 a few times, before slingshot away.
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I do not use "Fibs" in the "traditional" manner (retracements).
I use Fibs to plot "Ripples" (extensions) created by "Impulses".
Then look for "Pings" (ricochets) to confirm ongoing relevance.
My TV collection of ideas detailing the Concepts:
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions <= Current Example
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: 'one' Ping only
Chapter 7: The Mighty 2.618: like a Rook in Chess
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Nutrien - Fertilizer Plays Into Growing Season, But a Coinflip2022's droughts and the Ukraine War put a lot of the world's food supply into question. Food commodity futures had a pretty bullish year. Since we're in mid-February and Western Hemisphere growing season is right upon us, fertilizer stocks are really worth paying attention to.
Food scarcity is an even bigger issue with the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic smashing Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party over in Mainland China. The Party claims less than a hundred thousand people have died from COVID since this all began.
But the Party is obviously lying about that, since China had 1.4 billion people and was the epicenter of the virus. America is on the other side of the ocean and lost 1.1+ million people.
My point is that if China has really lost, say, 40 or 50 or 100 million people to the pandemic, the Party will need to import crops because there won't be all that many farmers around anymore to do the work of feeding the regime.
This should be a bullish situation for food commodities and fertilizer.
Nutrien is one of the market leaders, but this is a really difficult setup, a lot like flipping a coin, and here's why.
1. A monthly microgap at $64 that the algorithm spent a lot of effort keeping lows away from
2. Already a 40%+ retrace, but new lows haven't been set.
3. Daily bars show a perfect continuation of the downtrend line
4. Weekly bars show a sweep of the downtrend line
5. Earnings is Feb. 15
So, here's what I think at the moment. It's something of a gamble, but I think you can generate Alpha with puts on Nutrien before earnings. I say this, but realize that "generating Alpha" doesn't buy rice at the grocery store. It's like Sklansky Bucks in poker. Cool, you got +EV, but the donk took all your money. At least you can post a bad beat, I guess.
In this case I think the play is not as unrealistic.
Another fertilizer giant, CF Holdings, has earnings the same day: Feb. 15 postmarket, and started doing the bearish "orderblocking" thing two sessions ago
These patterns before earnings are generally (emphasis on generally ) harbingers of a big gap down coming. The logic being that sell orders are being filled in anticipation of what smart money's big data analysis has already very accurately determined is about to happen
Monday you get an FOMC member jawboning and Tuesday we get the dreaded CPI printout. It's a lot of volatility confluencing together in one big coagulate and if you guess right you win a cookie and if you guess wrong Wall Street guys will pay stripers with your money at 11:00 PM happy hour.
In Nutrien's Q3 '22 financials the company told investors that they expected demand to be hot going into _fall_, and not spring, "Weather has been favorable in North America and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support strong fall ammonia demand and normal application rates of potash, phosphate and crop protection products."
They also said, "We have lowered our global potash shipment forecast to between 60 and 62 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to the impact of higher-than-expected inventory and cautious buying in North America and Brazil during the second half of 2022."
These two factors contrast against expectations from the company that expectations of higher 2023 commodity prices will lead to an increase in farm production, while noting that Ukraine will be down some 45% because of the war, notable because they were pretty much the world's wheat kings.
Also noteworthy is Q3 was a big revenue/EPS miss for Nutrien. Estimates were 3.85 EPS and came in at $2.49. Revenue was $8.53B and came in at $7.91B.
Q4 is a lot easier of a goalpost to hit, with estimates at $2.534 EPS and $7.392 Revenue. A miss here would (logically) definitely be a dumpster.
So, ultimately, I think $110 Nutrien will come, and we may very well see this in the later part of '23, if not the early part of '24.
But before then, it seems that the $60s are imminent.
So, I'd rather do puts on CF than Nutrien into earnings as it stands, but staying flat and playing the consequences is a lot less risk.
The two areas to watch for on Nutrien:
1. $63 to buy
2. $110 to sell
It would be a big, bullish deal if Nutrien doesn't break this daily trendline and just dumps on earnings. $65 commons prices and 3-6+ month expiry call options should definitely be a fat return if you can ride it to the top.
NTRIm analysing agricultural stocks this weak the yellow helps me determin the top performers
Nutrien Ltd. is a crop nutrient company, which engages in the production and distribution of products for agricultural, industrial, and feed customer. It operates through the following segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise. The Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate segments produces differentiated chemical nutrient contained in each products. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
SENNA SEASON
NTRCanadian fertilizer stock specializing in potash production and third biggest production of nitrogen fertilizer with food storages occurring and crop planting increasing at the moment in the northern hemisphere one should be looking for undervalued stocks in this industry. As of right now the stock has a P/E of 10.25 (undervalue) and looks to increase it's earning with a prediction of forward P/E of 7.66. The PEG sits at .31 which the data indicate its price to earnings to growth should increase in the future. Based on the chart we can expect another down trend as we touch off a local resistance before continuing up. The channel seems to be holding strong, will need to reassess as we come to NTR's previous top.
$NTR Above the 9 SMA and 200 SMAAbove the 9 SMA and 200 SMA, MACD is switching over, and RSI has Go Go Juice
Nutrien ($NTR) the world’s largest corporate potash producer is increasing production by 10% to 15 million metric tons for 2022. The stock’s share price is up +20% this year.
Disclaimer: Stratford Research newsletters reflect the research and opinions of only the authors who are associated persons of Stratford Consulting Ltd. The newsletters are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset (cryptocurrency, etc.) in any account. The information provided within the newsletters is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. Any third-party information provided therein does not reflect the views of Stratford Consulting Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results.
NTR Weekly UpdatePosted a while back on NTR , long idea with JUN 80 calls following a whale buyer.
This stock continues to grind higher and beautiful chart IMO with healthy consolidation periods before each continuous move higher.
I'm bullish as long as she holds the 20MA (black line)
Will be looking to take some profits at target 85$ by rolling out the $80 calls to a higher strike.
Nice volume recently leads my bias to more upside , great EPS growth and great recent ER especially in a weaker market, great strength !
Blue skies you gotta buy :)
