TLKMDISCLAMER!!!!
You can buy it in installments and the cut loss is at 1,920
this is a long-term analysis because it is a monthly analysis
TLK trade ideas
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM): A Technical Setup You Can't Miss!Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) Stock Analysis
Date: January 22, 2025
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1. Technical Analysis
A. Support and Resistance:
• Strong support is observed at the 2,490 level (lower red line), which has been tested multiple times.
• Nearest resistance is at 2,870, with the next target resistance at 3,250.
B. Indicators:
• The 200-day SMA is at 2,955, indicating a long-term bearish trend as the current price remains below the SMA 200.
• RSI (14) stands at 54.42, suggesting moderate bullish momentum but not yet in the overbought area (>70).
• A rising RSI also indicates a bullish divergence, signaling a potential trend reversal.
C. Volume and Price Patterns:
• The price is moving sideways within a consolidation range of 2,490–2,870, with potential for a breakout if the 2,870 level is breached.
• A valid breakout could push the price towards 3,250.
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2. Recommendations
A. Daily Time Frame Supports Swing Trading:
• Analysis on the daily time frame is often utilized by swing traders to project price movements over weeks rather than days, especially when support and resistance levels are identified over a broad range (here: 2,490 to 3,250).
B. 3,250 Target as Major Resistance:
• Resistance at 3,250 is significant in the context of the chart. As a strong level, the price might take several weeks to reach it, especially if volume does not support an aggressive breakout.
C. RSI Divergence Requires Time:
• Bullish divergence on RSI typically indicates a larger trend reversal rather than minor movements. This suggests that a rise towards 3,250 is better viewed as a medium-term target, especially since TLKM remains below the 200-day SMA, meaning a new trend might take time to form.
D. Stop Loss:
• Set a tight stop loss below the support level of 2,490 to minimize potential losses.
Notes:
• Considering the above factors, the 3,250 target is more suitable for a medium-term swing trade rather than a short-term play:
1. The daily time frame supports multi-week price movement analysis.
2. The 3,250 target is a significant resistance level, likely requiring more than a few days to be reached.
3. The stock is still in a consolidation phase, requiring validation of a new trend for consistent upward movement.
4. For swing traders, use this analysis for a medium-term target (2-4 weeks).
5. For short-term traders, a target between 2,950 and 3,000 may be more realistic, taking quicker profits before reaching the major resistance at 3,250.
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3. Risk Management
A. Stop Loss:
• Set a stop loss at 2,490 to limit losses.
B. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
• With a target of 3,250 and a stop loss at 2,490, the RRR is 1:1.
• This setup is suitable for traders willing to accept risk with equal potential rewards. Traders seeking higher RRR may consider raising the target price or narrowing the stop loss.
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4. Capital Management
• In the cash market, capital allocation should remain disciplined to manage risks effectively. Allocate 5-10% of the total portfolio for this position.
• For investors with higher confidence and risk tolerance, allocation may increase to 10-15%, given the clear support and resistance levels to guide disciplined execution.
• Avoid allocating more than 15% of the portfolio to a single stock to maintain diversification and mitigate adverse market impacts.
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Conclusion
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) shows potential for a trend reversal, supported by bullish RSI divergence. A breakout above the 2,870 resistance level will confirm an entry point. However, investors should remain cautious about potential price retracements to the support area at 2,490, which could negate this bullish trend.
TLKM IDXTLKM has had a poor pattern so far, even though TLKM has quite good company fundamentals, penetration of its business network has been somewhat stagnant because it has expanded earlier than other brands in Indonesia. TLKM was stung because its investment in GOTO, which is now controlled by Bytedance, did not go well, apart from that, all GOTO founders resigned. Apart from that, Starlink entering Indonesia is a big threat to TLKM because it is very unfortunate that TLKM's internet services such as Indihome and several other products do not deny that there are lots of complaints from users. which causes or is feared that they will switch to using other brands such as EXCL, ISAT, or the one that looks very promising, namely Starlink.
But you need to remember that TLKM is a state-owned company which is very likely to be assisted by regulations and saved by the state at all costs, because one of the sensitive matters, namely user security, is a topic to be considered.
price predictions from us.
1 year ahead: IDR2800 - 3400
Next 3 years: IDR3600-4000 or 2200-3300 (depending on how the company responds and assistance from the government)
To discuss with me further, please comment below.
TLKMBullish Flag, Positive news, YOY surplus, Q4 '23 surplus, good volume
3490 25%Cap ; 3420 50%Cap ; 3320 25%Cap
D1 closed under 3260 = Cut lost at 3420
Target1 closed gap 3720 (RR 1:1 6%)
Target2 nearest Resist 3720 (RR 1:2 12%)
Target3 4360 breakout bull flag (RR 1:3 24%) and avg up around Target2 price
TLKM: Inverted Head & Shoulders, Trend Reversal Scenario?Hello Fellow Global Stock Trader, Here's a Technical outlook for TLKM!
Price Action Analysis
On the Daily Timeframe, TLKM is moving above EMA200. Then, the stock created a breakout of the inverted head & shoulder, indicating a trend reversal. The MACD Indicator created a hidden bullish divergence, signifying a possible upside movement to the target area.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area.
Support the channel by smashing the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comment below!
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the TLKM"
#kafein #TLKM - PRICE CHANNEL PATTERN#TLKM is currently moving in the Price Channel pattern, before determining its next direction.
Currently the lower limit is at the price of 3750, while the upper limit is at the price of 3940.
a break of support at 3750, leads to 3570 and vice versa a break of resistance at 3940 will lead to the next resistance at 4040
IDX: TLKM FOR SEPTEMBER 2022Strong support at 4510
Medium resistance at 4660
I Prefer Yellow trading plan
Disclaimer:
This information is for educational purposes and is not an investment recommendation or representative of professional expertise. This analysis used herein is for illustration purposes only. This personal opinion should not be considered specific investment advice. I am not responsible for any trades, and individuals are solely responsible for any live trades placed in their own personal accounts.
IDX: TLKM FOR AGUST 2022Strong support at 4510
Medium resistance at 4660
I Prefer Yellow trading plan
Disclaimer:
This information is for educational purposes and is not an investment recommendation or representative of professional expertise. This analysis used herein is for illustration purposes only. This personal opinion should not be considered specific investment advice. I am not responsible for any trades, and individuals are solely responsible for any live trades placed in their own personal accounts.
IDX: TLKM FOR JUNE 2022weak support at 4000
weak resistance resistance at 4050
I Prefer Yellow trading plan
Disclaimer:
This information is for educational purposes and is not an investment recommendation or representative of professional expertise. This analysis used herein is for illustration purposes only. This personal opinion should not be considered specific investment advice. I am not responsible for any trades, and individuals are solely responsible for any live trades placed in their own personal accounts.
