Technical bear case: - The Advance-Decline Line (for NYSE) has failed to make new highs (market breadth is week). ADL on chart. - Slow Stoch indicates a not-yet-oversold signal, but is close. Confirming a sell-off. - Futures have faded nearly every day of the last week (morning strength, afternoon weekness). Commentary bear case: We have seen a clear...
SIRI buyback plan should be enough to take this to at least 5.00. If that happens it's a 46% upside potential. Daily RSI and Stoch are poised for a break-out higher as well. Large volume increase on 3.15.2014 confirms potential.
Bullish indicators: The near-term high volume support area of SPY indicates (at the moment) that support is holding. Near-term Stoch also is close to oversold. If support holds then a 80% up day (on NYSE) would confirm bullish trend and set-up for a retest of highs. (Go long if this happens for a reduced-risk play. AKA - buy on dip recovery.) Risks: A...
TLT keeps looking to stay over the 108.28 fib. This seems like a temp pause in the 'great rotation'?
The continual decline of SP100 stocks relative to their 200 day ma could have some near-term implications
Perhaps those that missed the 2013 Bull market are sitting on the sidelines with cash - waiting for a back test of the Secular Bull breakout. Sept 2014 might be the month of that back test.