Liquor_and_Leverage

Liquor_and_Leverage Mar 1, 2024

Inflation swaps may be pricing in lower inflation, but swaps don't understand structural inflation. Are swap prices truly efficient? It's all about energy. That means oil, until some version of nuclear becomes significantly scalable to harvest commodities, will continue to drag inflation back to the party. Oil will party like it's 1973 and inflation will rear...

Liquor_and_Leverage Jan 8, 2023

~.8-.9 inverse correlation between VIX and SPY. Sometimes... they rally together. Rarely do the two correlate positively for extended periods of time.... Term structure will predict events, not a narrative. Narratives backward rationalize the unknown-known. All eyes on Japan, March, and May. Stocks and VIX rally on XYZ, eerily. -WSJ Probably.

Liquor_and_Leverage Dec 21, 2022

Long then short. Needed to add a Christmas tree to this one. Rally into Christmas Dump into New Years Santa had too much eggnog and cookies. GDP and Unemployment should create large volatility in a seasonally slow period. Betting it's to the upside with good GDP and bad payroll (BLS finally admitting they lied on over $1MM in 2022). Should revise payrolls...

Liquor_and_Leverage Updated  Dec 4, 2022

Waves aren't measured properly, this is a general thesis on the pivot / timing of pivot of this leg up. "Stocks could rally in December..." - Jim Cramer Dec 1 is Monthly Rebalance Dec 16 is Monthly Opex

Liquor_and_Leverage Jul 11, 2022

Joe Budden told Gas Stations to lower prices.... so they did. Daddy Yankee made the Gasolina go down.

Liquor_and_Leverage Jul 11, 2022

It's going down... I'm yelling Timber! Something Something Ke$ha Pitbull

Liquor_and_Leverage Updated  May 19, 2022

Man with 2 left hands learns Elliot Wave - Local News Reports I'm sure this will be 100% wrong, but we're dancing on the Titanic and the bombs have already gone off.... I mean iceberg. Just interested in laughing at it when it's all said and done. This would be the identical wave to 2008, but on a condensed scale. :rocket: VIX :rocket:

Liquor_and_Leverage Mar 5, 2022

The highest form of technical analysis. Turn off dark themes to view.