We are looking to short the market as price comes up into the resistance area marked by the red rectangle. Many Fibonacci ratios line up perfectly inside the reversal zone and the 1.27BC projection with the equivalent AB=CD completion define the reversal zone tightly. Also drawn is a Fibonacci extension from the A to B point with its 1.27 level coming a bit above the reversal zone. We are also nearing short-term resistance so opening a short position as price confirms reversal is a good bet probability-wise.
The market appears to be ranging looking at the weekly chart, so we would expect a reversal to push back down into the bottom trendline of the ascending triangle that could shape up on the weekly chart.
Fundamentally speaking, if we see strength from Japan with the manufacturing PMI and Industrial production coming up soon, or if we see weakness from Australia from the rate decision, then we would have more confirmation of a short position being sound.
Additionally, it is important to never place limit orders anywhere in the red rectangle; it is crucial that one enters a position with a market order after observing how price action behaves in the reversal zone. It is possible with weak Japanese data and a rate hike coming from Australia, that we could have a strong bullish candle breaking and closing above structure resistance. We must see stabilization of price action, and look for entry rationale on lower timeframes possibly with a double top or a doji candle.
UPDATE 4/1 9AM PST: Price is pushing into the potential reversal zone. Following the worse than expected data from Japan on the 31st of March (Housing Starts, Tankan Large Manufacturers Index/Outlook), and the decision of the RBA to keep rates at 2.50%, AUD has gained strength over the yen. We will have to pay attention to the JPY monetary base data coming later today, and the AUD retail sales/trade balance data coming on Thursday. We have to see stabilization of price to enter this trade, and at this point, the pattern might be invalidated in the coming days.
The market appears to be ranging looking at the weekly chart, so we would expect a reversal to push back down into the bottom trendline of the ascending triangle that could shape up on the weekly chart.
Fundamentally speaking, if we see strength from Japan with the manufacturing PMI and Industrial production coming up soon, or if we see weakness from Australia from the rate decision, then we would have more confirmation of a short position being sound.
Additionally, it is important to never place limit orders anywhere in the red rectangle; it is crucial that one enters a position with a market order after observing how price action behaves in the reversal zone. It is possible with weak Japanese data and a rate hike coming from Australia, that we could have a strong bullish candle breaking and closing above structure resistance. We must see stabilization of price action, and look for entry rationale on lower timeframes possibly with a double top or a doji candle.
UPDATE 4/1 9AM PST: Price is pushing into the potential reversal zone. Following the worse than expected data from Japan on the 31st of March (Housing Starts, Tankan Large Manufacturers Index/Outlook), and the decision of the RBA to keep rates at 2.50%, AUD has gained strength over the yen. We will have to pay attention to the JPY monetary base data coming later today, and the AUD retail sales/trade balance data coming on Thursday. We have to see stabilization of price to enter this trade, and at this point, the pattern might be invalidated in the coming days.