My BTC Long hypothesis

Pay attention to the following points:

Historical data and how the bottom was identified\pattern
200 Weekly moving average and its role
Sloping trend line (downwards) shows consistency
Volume

Note: I believe the uptrend in the past days is to hit the 200 W MA (resistance) and then downwards to continue the bear trend.

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Closerup image

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I'm not going to try to forecast the sideways movements as this would be credulous. Pay note how we move or trace towards the 20 Week Moving Average.

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Just some finer details (updated 20 Weekly moving average and possible sideways movement before the next major drop

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How we are tracking the 20 week moving average. (note, error on the txt for 200 Weekly EMA)

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The 200 weekly MA is acting as the resistance and the 300 weekly MA is acting as the support...

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How are we tracking?

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Monthly candles. We have had 6 straight months of bearish candles, which is more than previous trends. 5 was the longest. Note another indicator on the chart where ADX and DI indactor shows the buying and selling is squeezed to the point of balance and hence a trigger for reversal as per the previous downtrend in 2014/2015

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Progress update

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Daily 128 EMA has been an accurate resistance level. Currently 4200 is the resistance roof.

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It seems its going to hit a number of resistances , the horizontal resistance (red) the sloping resistance (black) and the 128 D, MA resistance. We also have daily RSI approaching over 80% (overbought) and volume getting lower than before at the resistance(red). If there is a possibility that it passes through these, then the 200 D, MA will be a major resistance. . Long term trend is still bearish. I would sell before we get to these junctures,

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Another indication of the coming move. Refer to the RSI and Stock RSI

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Who was to guess it would sky rocket higher than some key resistances. Interesting what was also potentially missed(I did) was a inverse head and shoulder? You be the judge. Going to basics, the 50 Weekly MA will be the next resistance at about $5280. Some people say 5500 and 6000 the ultimate resistance. Observation>e BTC hit top at $5275 and then a 20% retrace?. The Weekly 20 MA is a strong support for a pullback, at $4100 but we can't see it falling that back. My guess moving forward, over extended and a re-tracement to 4500 (.618 fib)

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www.tradingview.com/chart/gH9tO8tq/

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As its work in progress, with new information, we need to tweak our charts and expectations. after many Weekly green candles on the we expect a
good pullback\consolidation . What goes up must come down. Its been proven many times of this nature, and we use the previous and current RSI levels +
the Weekly 100 MA and 200 MA to confirm this, as well as. That being one is resistance and the other support.

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What are the 100 and 200 Weekly MA values as we speak?
$5262 and $4136 .
This fits in nice with the Fib metrix, the current trent and with the assumption that we will soon have a restracement because of the RSI value range matching July 2016 high range in the "accumulation" phase of the cycle.

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Another progress report.
Both the slope resistance and previous support in Oct 2017 is now acting as resistances.
The Weekly 50 SMA also acting as a resistance.

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NVT indicator and previous RSI high indicator says we are close to reversal.
Chart includes slope line from 2015, historical RSI and NVT events that support peaks and reversals.