Good Afternoon,
I know many are hoping that this halving on may 8th 2020 is bullish. There is good reason for that, aka history tells us that. However we can't neglect all else and go on one idea and assume that BTC is going to the moon on this halving alone. Just because it has been a signal in the past does not negate other factors.
First rule of thumb in doing any TA is to get out of your own way. Never trade on need and emotion or it will cost you your hard earned dollars, the market makers will love you for it. When the moon and stars all line up...so to speak, we look for confluence before we do anything. That is something that comes by practice and experience. Just like learning an instrument, we learn from the best and then we develop our own style.
So as styles go, my style is in using EWT, time tested tools, basic TA and common sense. My style like others is my style alone and far from perfect but close enough to make money at it. Speaking of which, the reason for this published work is to share some common, sense mixed in with a little technical analyses.
So lets have a look at this chart and talk about it. First off you can see how basic it is, I subscribe to the k.i.s.s program because it works and works well in everyday life.
The basic structure is that of a log scale on a weekly time frame. The arcs are parabolic curves showing the support and resistance of the price action and the vertical lines are where the BTC halving took place (within 2 days). I applied the wave count denoted as 1,3,5 for progress and numbers 2 and 4 for correction. In addition I have applied the correction for the whole structure denoted as A,B,and C for corrective purposes.
The total wave count is 8, known as a complete cycle. The cycle has 2 distinct phases, the motive phase has 5 waves denoted by numbers and the corrective phase has 3 waves denoted by letters. At the terminus of this 8 wave pattern begins another cycle, 5 motive waves and 3 corrective waves, which will bring more progress to the whole structure.
Zooming out, when the 2 cycles have completed, this would be called a super cycle denoted by numbers 1 and 2 for the first cycle and 3 and 4 as the second cycle. Then we will see more progress with another cycle of 8 waves which will complete the super cycle as 5 motive waves and 3 corrective waves. If we zoom out further, we will see only 2 waves, 1 and 2 of a larger cycle known as the grand super cycle.
If we zoom in, we will see waves upon waves. Largest waves, 1 motive 1 correction equals 2, largest subdivisions 5 motive 3 corrective equals 8 waves, next subdivisions 21 and 13 equals 34, next subdivisions 89 and 55 equals 144. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948) the genius behind this forecasting tool never mentioned why the market worked this way, he simply said that this is what is happening.
Looking at this chart I have BTC labelled as in a 8 wave cycle,within this cycle we are on wave C of the 8 wave cycle. I added in intermediate waves ABC, we are currently on intermediate wave B of cycle wave C. Max upside for wave B can be seen on this chart. I also added in the bottom which can be seen as cycle wave C of super cycle wave 2. The retracements do match BTC history and BTC likes to retrace between 80 to 90 percent. This in mind I added the approximate 80% to 90% retracement for cycle wave C.
Once published I will be adding a snap shot of further evidence to support my TA along with, if needed a brief description of what I see within the indicator(s). That is, if there is a real interest in wanting to know more information to support my idea.
If you like what you see, leave a comment and or give me a thumbs up.
Cheers!
I know many are hoping that this halving on may 8th 2020 is bullish. There is good reason for that, aka history tells us that. However we can't neglect all else and go on one idea and assume that BTC is going to the moon on this halving alone. Just because it has been a signal in the past does not negate other factors.
First rule of thumb in doing any TA is to get out of your own way. Never trade on need and emotion or it will cost you your hard earned dollars, the market makers will love you for it. When the moon and stars all line up...so to speak, we look for confluence before we do anything. That is something that comes by practice and experience. Just like learning an instrument, we learn from the best and then we develop our own style.
So as styles go, my style is in using EWT, time tested tools, basic TA and common sense. My style like others is my style alone and far from perfect but close enough to make money at it. Speaking of which, the reason for this published work is to share some common, sense mixed in with a little technical analyses.
So lets have a look at this chart and talk about it. First off you can see how basic it is, I subscribe to the k.i.s.s program because it works and works well in everyday life.
The basic structure is that of a log scale on a weekly time frame. The arcs are parabolic curves showing the support and resistance of the price action and the vertical lines are where the BTC halving took place (within 2 days). I applied the wave count denoted as 1,3,5 for progress and numbers 2 and 4 for correction. In addition I have applied the correction for the whole structure denoted as A,B,and C for corrective purposes.
The total wave count is 8, known as a complete cycle. The cycle has 2 distinct phases, the motive phase has 5 waves denoted by numbers and the corrective phase has 3 waves denoted by letters. At the terminus of this 8 wave pattern begins another cycle, 5 motive waves and 3 corrective waves, which will bring more progress to the whole structure.
Zooming out, when the 2 cycles have completed, this would be called a super cycle denoted by numbers 1 and 2 for the first cycle and 3 and 4 as the second cycle. Then we will see more progress with another cycle of 8 waves which will complete the super cycle as 5 motive waves and 3 corrective waves. If we zoom out further, we will see only 2 waves, 1 and 2 of a larger cycle known as the grand super cycle.
If we zoom in, we will see waves upon waves. Largest waves, 1 motive 1 correction equals 2, largest subdivisions 5 motive 3 corrective equals 8 waves, next subdivisions 21 and 13 equals 34, next subdivisions 89 and 55 equals 144. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948) the genius behind this forecasting tool never mentioned why the market worked this way, he simply said that this is what is happening.
Looking at this chart I have BTC labelled as in a 8 wave cycle,within this cycle we are on wave C of the 8 wave cycle. I added in intermediate waves ABC, we are currently on intermediate wave B of cycle wave C. Max upside for wave B can be seen on this chart. I also added in the bottom which can be seen as cycle wave C of super cycle wave 2. The retracements do match BTC history and BTC likes to retrace between 80 to 90 percent. This in mind I added the approximate 80% to 90% retracement for cycle wave C.
Once published I will be adding a snap shot of further evidence to support my TA along with, if needed a brief description of what I see within the indicator(s). That is, if there is a real interest in wanting to know more information to support my idea.
If you like what you see, leave a comment and or give me a thumbs up.
Cheers!
Kommentera:
This for now on a smaller TF,
