BTC Medium-term: Sunny, but you never know, so bring a coat.
In my first published idea here (mid-September), I suggested that BTC seemed poised to fall and re-test the bottom of a long-forming descending wedge.
Well, it did fall, but not quite to the bottom of the wedge. For the first time in a long while, we started forming higher lows. This trend has continued, and we now find ourselves in a very nice looking ascending wedge (drawn here in light green) -- still *within* a descending wedge (drawn in purple), but with solid support at around $6200 USD, and nicely shaping up to look a lot like a possible breakout/trend reversal.
For the first time within this downtrend, the 200 MA -- which has acted as a solid resistance over the past few months, rejecting several rallies at or near its mark -- is *above* this descending wedge (as I've drawn it, here), instead of right on top of it, or cutting thru it.
On the RSI side, we have a nice, long-forming ascending wedge (blue lines on RSI chart) -- a strengthening market.
But, on the shorter term, we have a *possible* RSI downtrend forming (red line on RSI chart). We'll soon see how that shakes out.
If we break up out of this wedge -- which seems likely in a few days, that's hugely positive. I'd imagine we'll test that 200 MA again, but this time, it's sitting higher, so if we break up, the next target is around $7250. We might see a small rejection at that point, but if this bullish momentum sustains, I think we have a good chance of bouncing right back to test -- and break -- it for good.
Bearish scenario, we fall to the bottom of this ascending wedge, test it, fail, and fall down to our next support at around $5880 USD.
Feeling pretty bullish right now, though.
Well, it did fall, but not quite to the bottom of the wedge. For the first time in a long while, we started forming higher lows. This trend has continued, and we now find ourselves in a very nice looking ascending wedge (drawn here in light green) -- still *within* a descending wedge (drawn in purple), but with solid support at around $6200 USD, and nicely shaping up to look a lot like a possible breakout/trend reversal.
For the first time within this downtrend, the 200 MA -- which has acted as a solid resistance over the past few months, rejecting several rallies at or near its mark -- is *above* this descending wedge (as I've drawn it, here), instead of right on top of it, or cutting thru it.
On the RSI side, we have a nice, long-forming ascending wedge (blue lines on RSI chart) -- a strengthening market.
But, on the shorter term, we have a *possible* RSI downtrend forming (red line on RSI chart). We'll soon see how that shakes out.
If we break up out of this wedge -- which seems likely in a few days, that's hugely positive. I'd imagine we'll test that 200 MA again, but this time, it's sitting higher, so if we break up, the next target is around $7250. We might see a small rejection at that point, but if this bullish momentum sustains, I think we have a good chance of bouncing right back to test -- and break -- it for good.
Bearish scenario, we fall to the bottom of this ascending wedge, test it, fail, and fall down to our next support at around $5880 USD.
Feeling pretty bullish right now, though.
