Bitcoin continues to exhibit signs of fatigue following the 500% bull run that took place over the last 15 months (Late Summer 2020 - Fall 2021). As we come into a key area at $57k-$55k, a break below this range will likely take us to $43k very quickly in one ugly devastating move. From there, a few unfortunate herbivores will rush in - thinking it is a great opportunity to buy and try to "beat the fed" - only to be massacred again (figuratively speaking) shortly thereafter.
I do not like the looks of Bitcoin - both from a technical perspective and a macro perspective. The former is mostly summarized above and in the chart; the latter is really based on what i would describe as three general macro factors:
1. Political
2. Market
3. Financial
Politically, my supposition (and recently validated to some extent) the idea that new regulations will fulfill the idea that developed governments will not ever adopt nor compete with crypto. In terms of the "market", I think the recent ETF-ing of cryptocurrency, puts them in a position to - at the very least - compete with other ETFs; this means profit taking and long-money-flows that are really more subject to the well-integrated real economy. I am essentially asking the question: "is Bitcoin / crypto really that important to the mechanics of the global economy?"... I honestly do not know the answer to this question but I keep leaning towards the answer being: no.
Why?
The third and final piece of my current thesis: the prevailing financial structure is denominated in dollars - particularly $USD. What this means is that if you do business in anything where dollars are involved ( oil, US companies, etc ), that means the associated tax obligation is also due in dollars. Before we continue - the validity of this idea is all based on the idea that the US government and our DXY member-partners do not and will not accept anything other than dollars (or their respective currencies) for outstanding tax obligations. So now any time someone says crypto is the "new way" or becoming "more widely adopted", they have no idea what they are talking about - at least not in terms of opportunistic investing/trading. Again, if a business has to accept non-dollars as part of their revenue, they have to exchange or somehow convert those non-dollars (crypto) in order to meet their tax obligation; which essentially means that a portion of their revenue and proportionate ability to meet short and long term obligations, is subject to 1. Political headwinds and 2. Market pressure from the real economy.
Be well.
I do not like the looks of Bitcoin - both from a technical perspective and a macro perspective. The former is mostly summarized above and in the chart; the latter is really based on what i would describe as three general macro factors:
1. Political
2. Market
3. Financial
Politically, my supposition (and recently validated to some extent) the idea that new regulations will fulfill the idea that developed governments will not ever adopt nor compete with crypto. In terms of the "market", I think the recent ETF-ing of cryptocurrency, puts them in a position to - at the very least - compete with other ETFs; this means profit taking and long-money-flows that are really more subject to the well-integrated real economy. I am essentially asking the question: "is Bitcoin / crypto really that important to the mechanics of the global economy?"... I honestly do not know the answer to this question but I keep leaning towards the answer being: no.
Why?
The third and final piece of my current thesis: the prevailing financial structure is denominated in dollars - particularly $USD. What this means is that if you do business in anything where dollars are involved ( oil, US companies, etc ), that means the associated tax obligation is also due in dollars. Before we continue - the validity of this idea is all based on the idea that the US government and our DXY member-partners do not and will not accept anything other than dollars (or their respective currencies) for outstanding tax obligations. So now any time someone says crypto is the "new way" or becoming "more widely adopted", they have no idea what they are talking about - at least not in terms of opportunistic investing/trading. Again, if a business has to accept non-dollars as part of their revenue, they have to exchange or somehow convert those non-dollars (crypto) in order to meet their tax obligation; which essentially means that a portion of their revenue and proportionate ability to meet short and long term obligations, is subject to 1. Political headwinds and 2. Market pressure from the real economy.
Be well.
