Despite buying back in (Heavily)
The bear argument needs addressing.
$18000 absolutely needs to hold
Several stages to this, first, TA
So….
- Weak double bottom with most of the action happening on the lower side.
- also can be viewed as a right Triangle (Continuation: target 14-11)
- despite reversal divergence on all indicators on high time frames (usually very bullish sign for me) it is realistic to assume that a brake to 13 would still register reversal divergence on these indicators (happened in ‘18), which means that they cannot accurately predict a reversal unless they are congruent on all time frames, and even then, if say the RSI hits a new lower low, that is a very bad sign in a bear market because it implies lower lows on future price proportional to the time frame being viewed.
But, for the record, MACD, RSI, VOLUME, TD SEQUNTIAL, F&G INDEX, they all point north.
But…
Price will not reverse until a lower price and higher RSI value is achieved, especially on high time frames, which has happened, but…meh
Overlapped is the $US index DXY. As you can see, BTC acts exponentially to DXY value. DXY has been in an uptrend, bear flag, for sometime. I still believe $112 is the upside of this pattern.
Now fundamentals and my opinion.
Therefore I expect a pull back on the DXY, if I was to read TA alone, which normally I do, because I find it much more accurate then media. After all, the TA is the psychology of the market. I’m saying DXY is due for a pullback. However, due to the parabolic-ness of the US move, I’m concerned. It’s in a bullish pattern breakout position, but if you ask me, it’s way over-hyped, you still can’t eat dollars and they aren’t backed by anything, and not just US dollar, any currency.
In fact, the irony here is that I’m comparing a hypothetical thing (BTC) with a hypothetical thing ($US) for which neither are actually backed by anything. Therefore anything is more valuable then either. Funny fact. Of course, I implement this idea into my trading strategy.
TA alone is bullish, but world economics is complicated, and from a traders perspective, this reversal pattern is weak. Therefore, even if it does reverse, I’ll be shorting between $30-$50, because it becoming clearer that we are likely to see $10k in the mid future.
I’m holding my longs because I’m short term bullish, but I am mid term bearish… and I hate saying that, I’m just applying the lesson learnt in 2018.
Things to consider.
- if dollar up, then BTC and everything else is down
- up inflation = down unemployment, down inflation = up unemployment
- ever thought to yourself “of my, this is what the world has come to…” yeah… that’s the bubble that’s popping right now. And considering BTC can move 17% when the $US moved 1.5%, that’s a concerning fact as a crypto trader.
So take it easy,
The best investment is educating yourself, and the next best investment is useable assets. It’s time to tighten up.
If 18 brakes, I sell all crypto.
The GOOD NEWS:
- BTC bellow the 200MA, might come back
- RSI primed for breakout
- loving the volume on this dip
Clearly playing both sides of this reversal
The bear argument needs addressing.
$18000 absolutely needs to hold
Several stages to this, first, TA
So….
- Weak double bottom with most of the action happening on the lower side.
- also can be viewed as a right Triangle (Continuation: target 14-11)
- despite reversal divergence on all indicators on high time frames (usually very bullish sign for me) it is realistic to assume that a brake to 13 would still register reversal divergence on these indicators (happened in ‘18), which means that they cannot accurately predict a reversal unless they are congruent on all time frames, and even then, if say the RSI hits a new lower low, that is a very bad sign in a bear market because it implies lower lows on future price proportional to the time frame being viewed.
But, for the record, MACD, RSI, VOLUME, TD SEQUNTIAL, F&G INDEX, they all point north.
But…
Price will not reverse until a lower price and higher RSI value is achieved, especially on high time frames, which has happened, but…meh
Overlapped is the $US index DXY. As you can see, BTC acts exponentially to DXY value. DXY has been in an uptrend, bear flag, for sometime. I still believe $112 is the upside of this pattern.
Now fundamentals and my opinion.
Therefore I expect a pull back on the DXY, if I was to read TA alone, which normally I do, because I find it much more accurate then media. After all, the TA is the psychology of the market. I’m saying DXY is due for a pullback. However, due to the parabolic-ness of the US move, I’m concerned. It’s in a bullish pattern breakout position, but if you ask me, it’s way over-hyped, you still can’t eat dollars and they aren’t backed by anything, and not just US dollar, any currency.
In fact, the irony here is that I’m comparing a hypothetical thing (BTC) with a hypothetical thing ($US) for which neither are actually backed by anything. Therefore anything is more valuable then either. Funny fact. Of course, I implement this idea into my trading strategy.
TA alone is bullish, but world economics is complicated, and from a traders perspective, this reversal pattern is weak. Therefore, even if it does reverse, I’ll be shorting between $30-$50, because it becoming clearer that we are likely to see $10k in the mid future.
I’m holding my longs because I’m short term bullish, but I am mid term bearish… and I hate saying that, I’m just applying the lesson learnt in 2018.
Things to consider.
- if dollar up, then BTC and everything else is down
- up inflation = down unemployment, down inflation = up unemployment
- ever thought to yourself “of my, this is what the world has come to…” yeah… that’s the bubble that’s popping right now. And considering BTC can move 17% when the $US moved 1.5%, that’s a concerning fact as a crypto trader.
So take it easy,
The best investment is educating yourself, and the next best investment is useable assets. It’s time to tighten up.
If 18 brakes, I sell all crypto.
The GOOD NEWS:
- BTC bellow the 200MA, might come back
- RSI primed for breakout
- loving the volume on this dip
Clearly playing both sides of this reversal
