BTC SHORT BLACK SWAN 41k per BTC
Market Maker Sell Model with Potential Black Swan Event
This trade represents a classic Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM), where the smart money appears to have engineered a sell-off after accumulating positions at higher price levels.
- Initial Setup: The price action shows a significant liquidity grab at the top, leading to a sharp decline, indicating the possible distribution phase by market makers. The sell-off from the "SMR" level confirms the beginning of the MMSM.
- Entry Point: After the final push-up to the "SMR" level, where the market takes out liquidity, I entered short once the price confirmed rejection and began its downward trajectory.
- Targets:
- TP1: Set at the first significant support level.
- TP2: Set at a lower support level, which aligns with the overall downward trend.
- Market Context: The sharp decline hints at broader market instability. This pattern, combined with macroeconomic indicators, suggests the possibility of an incoming Black Swan event, which could exacerbate the sell-off and lead to a further drop in BTC price.
- Risk Management: Stop-loss was placed slightly above the "SMR" level to protect against potential false breakdowns. However, considering the potential Black Swan scenario, additional caution is warranted.
Conclusion: The price action strongly indicates that market makers have distributed their positions, and the sharp decline aligns with the Market Maker Sell Model. Given the possibility of an unforeseen market shock, this trade could be a precursor to a more significant market downturn.
This trade represents a classic Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM), where the smart money appears to have engineered a sell-off after accumulating positions at higher price levels.
- Initial Setup: The price action shows a significant liquidity grab at the top, leading to a sharp decline, indicating the possible distribution phase by market makers. The sell-off from the "SMR" level confirms the beginning of the MMSM.
- Entry Point: After the final push-up to the "SMR" level, where the market takes out liquidity, I entered short once the price confirmed rejection and began its downward trajectory.
- Targets:
- TP1: Set at the first significant support level.
- TP2: Set at a lower support level, which aligns with the overall downward trend.
- Market Context: The sharp decline hints at broader market instability. This pattern, combined with macroeconomic indicators, suggests the possibility of an incoming Black Swan event, which could exacerbate the sell-off and lead to a further drop in BTC price.
- Risk Management: Stop-loss was placed slightly above the "SMR" level to protect against potential false breakdowns. However, considering the potential Black Swan scenario, additional caution is warranted.
Conclusion: The price action strongly indicates that market makers have distributed their positions, and the sharp decline aligns with the Market Maker Sell Model. Given the possibility of an unforeseen market shock, this trade could be a precursor to a more significant market downturn.
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