Polkadot (DOT): Setting Up for a Bullish Reversal

DOTUSD has recently breached the $6 level, forming a bullish divergence, as indicated by the vertical lines on the chart. The exit from the 3.618 Fibonacci time zone should ideally mark the end of Wave 2, though the exact completion of Wave 2 may lie slightly outside this range. It appears that Polkadot has completed its accumulation phase and is now entering the manipulation phase, with potential for expansion to follow.

Given the current situation, we are planning to place an entry at $4.85, with a stop-loss set just below the 100% Fibonacci retracement to protect against a Wave 2 invalidation. Our initial target is $9.30, aligning with the Daily Fair-Value Gap. This strategy aims to capture the potential upward movement as Polkadot transitions from accumulation to expansion.


Yearly VWAP Analysis:

Polkadot is currently holding the 2021 VWAP level perfectly. However, if this level is lost, the price could move down towards the 2021 VAL (Volume Area Low) at $4.55, which might provide significant support. To resume a bullish trend, Polkadot needs to reclaim the 2021 VAH (Volume Area High) at $6.80. Overcoming this level is essential for a sustained bullish move. If these levels are breached, a drop to the 2021 VAL at $4.55 is possible, where we might find strong support. Overcoming the yearly VWAP resistance is crucial for a bullish continuation.


Monthly VWAP Analysis:

Polkadot has lost the April VAL (Volume Area Low) and recently touched the November 2023 VWAP. Holding the November 2023 VWAP is crucial to maintaining a bullish stance, although there is potential for further downside. We anticipate a possible drop to retest the November 2023 VWAP and VAL levels to gather momentum for a bullish reversal. To turn bullish again, Polkadot needs to reclaim the current month's April VAL and VWAP levels, suggesting a stronger bullish outlook.

Conclusion:

If Polkadot fails to hold the November 2023 VWAP, we expect a move towards $4.82. For a bullish reversal, reclaiming the April VAL and current monthly VWAP levels is essential. Until these levels are reclaimed, we remain cautious and anticipate further downside. Our trading strategy involves entering at $4.85, with a stop-loss at $3.55. The take-profit targets are set at $7.76, $9.50, and open for further potential gains.