ES/SPY Weekend Look (April 18-22)
Here is the weekend look at the S&P going into the trading week of April 18th to 22nd. The S&P closed down 2.14% completing the second red week in a row on Thursday. The S&P started the week on Monday down 1.66%, rallied the next two days into the 9/21 emas only to reverse and finish the day on Thursday dropping 1.23% to close at the weekly low.
Going into this week price sits below the ema cloud and inside both the HTF and LTF Neutrals. I will start the week with a Neutral =>Bearish bias. Price is currently stuck in a broad trading range between 4631 and 4101. There is no defined trend and price may move in either direction driven by unpredictable daily events.
If price can reclaim the top of the LTF Neutral at 4420 and the 21 ema a move to the May 29th pivot at 4631 is possible. Above 4631 a move to the 886 Fib at 4722 is likely. If price fails to reclaim 4420 a move down to the bottom of the LTF Neutral at 4296 is probable. Below 4296 the next levels down would be the 886 Fib at 4158 and then the Feb 24th low at 4101.
Inflation, bond yields & the war in Ukraine will continue to dominate the news headlines. This will provide a complicated backdrop for earnings season which has started again. This week will feature earnings from NFLX, TSLA, HAL, JNJ, SNAP, BAC, AAL and many more. The results will set the tone going forward with a focus on how companies are managing supply chain issues and inflation. Powell is also scheduled to speak on Thursday which is always potential market mover.
A I mentioned above the S&P is trading in a large sideways consolidation pattern and has not established a trend. It is possible for price to move within this range for some time. For this reason, I continue to focus on shorter term trades between the fib levels and key pivots. If one does not trade Futures or the SPY the strongest sectors are in defensive areas plus energy and Materials. XLP, XLV, XLE & XME are all sectors to focus on when looking for outperforming stocks.
For those unfamiliar with my process check out the educational posts in my Trading View or Twitter Profile. I post the key levels I will be watching at the beginning of the week. Each level represents an if/then trading scenario. If price reaches a key level watch for price to either hold or a break the level. If price holds the level expect a reversal back to the previous level. If price breaks the level expect a move to the next level. Trade should be taken on the LTF to manage risk.
If you find my post helpful, please give me a like. Consider following me on Twitter @Sea2Sky_trader for more insights and ideas.
Here is a link to my substack of this post with more data: nine21.substack.com/...res-weekend-look-ecc
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Bullard Speaks
Tuesday Housing Starts, Feds’s Evans Speaks & US API Crude Inventory
Wednesday Canadian CPI, Existing Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims & Powell/Legarde Speak
Friday US PMI Data & Canadian Retail Sales
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BAC, SCHW,
Tuesday HAL, HAS, JNJ, SI, IBM, NFLX
Wednesday AA, CSX, TSLA, UAL, KMI
Thursday AAL, NUE, DGX, UNP, SNAP
Friday CLF, KMB, NEM, SLB
BULLISH
Positive earnings momentum
Yields drop
De-Escalation in Ukraine war
Inflation data surprised to downside
Dovish Tone from Powell & Fed Heads
BEARISH
Negative earnings momentum
Yields continue to rise
Escalation of the war in Ukraine
Further lock downs in China
Inflation data come in strong
Hawkish tone from Powell and Fed heads
Going into this week price sits below the ema cloud and inside both the HTF and LTF Neutrals. I will start the week with a Neutral =>Bearish bias. Price is currently stuck in a broad trading range between 4631 and 4101. There is no defined trend and price may move in either direction driven by unpredictable daily events.
If price can reclaim the top of the LTF Neutral at 4420 and the 21 ema a move to the May 29th pivot at 4631 is possible. Above 4631 a move to the 886 Fib at 4722 is likely. If price fails to reclaim 4420 a move down to the bottom of the LTF Neutral at 4296 is probable. Below 4296 the next levels down would be the 886 Fib at 4158 and then the Feb 24th low at 4101.
Inflation, bond yields & the war in Ukraine will continue to dominate the news headlines. This will provide a complicated backdrop for earnings season which has started again. This week will feature earnings from NFLX, TSLA, HAL, JNJ, SNAP, BAC, AAL and many more. The results will set the tone going forward with a focus on how companies are managing supply chain issues and inflation. Powell is also scheduled to speak on Thursday which is always potential market mover.
A I mentioned above the S&P is trading in a large sideways consolidation pattern and has not established a trend. It is possible for price to move within this range for some time. For this reason, I continue to focus on shorter term trades between the fib levels and key pivots. If one does not trade Futures or the SPY the strongest sectors are in defensive areas plus energy and Materials. XLP, XLV, XLE & XME are all sectors to focus on when looking for outperforming stocks.
For those unfamiliar with my process check out the educational posts in my Trading View or Twitter Profile. I post the key levels I will be watching at the beginning of the week. Each level represents an if/then trading scenario. If price reaches a key level watch for price to either hold or a break the level. If price holds the level expect a reversal back to the previous level. If price breaks the level expect a move to the next level. Trade should be taken on the LTF to manage risk.
If you find my post helpful, please give me a like. Consider following me on Twitter @Sea2Sky_trader for more insights and ideas.
Here is a link to my substack of this post with more data: nine21.substack.com/...res-weekend-look-ecc
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Bullard Speaks
Tuesday Housing Starts, Feds’s Evans Speaks & US API Crude Inventory
Wednesday Canadian CPI, Existing Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims & Powell/Legarde Speak
Friday US PMI Data & Canadian Retail Sales
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BAC, SCHW,
Tuesday HAL, HAS, JNJ, SI, IBM, NFLX
Wednesday AA, CSX, TSLA, UAL, KMI
Thursday AAL, NUE, DGX, UNP, SNAP
Friday CLF, KMB, NEM, SLB
BULLISH
Positive earnings momentum
Yields drop
De-Escalation in Ukraine war
Inflation data surprised to downside
Dovish Tone from Powell & Fed Heads
BEARISH
Negative earnings momentum
Yields continue to rise
Escalation of the war in Ukraine
Further lock downs in China
Inflation data come in strong
Hawkish tone from Powell and Fed heads
Kommentera:
Here is a look at what I am calling the HTF & LTF Neutral Boxes. Price is currently stuck in the middle of the two. This means there is currently no trend and price may chop sideways until it can breakout above or below the boxes.
Kommentera:
The 4400 level acting as resistance right now. So key level to watch. Will likely not gain upside momentum until that level is reclaimed. Break of today's low puts the bottom of the neutral in play.
Kommentera:
The low has held for now and price is making another run at 4400. Note that today's bounce is from the middle of the LTF Neutral and exactly at the bottom of the HTF Neutral identified above. So respecting the fibs from the higher time frame measurement.
